Scotland vs Slovenia prediction, tips and odds | Nations League

Sebastien Pocognoli's Scotland return to Nations League action at Hampden Park on Tuesday, when they face Slovenia less than a fortnight since the two sides played out a goalless stalemate in Ljubljana. Bostjan Cesar's side have not beaten Scotland in six attempts, yet both nations arrive level on four points in Group 1 of League B, trailing a rampant Switzerland team by five points with three rounds still to play.

Andy Robertson is set to earn his 101st cap just three days after becoming only the second Scottish men's player in history to reach a century of appearances, and Pocognoli will want a first Hampden win to mark the occasion. New betting sites have been quick to list markets on a fixture that carries plenty of subplots beyond the scoreline.

Scotland vs Slovenia: form guide and preview

Pocognoli finally has a win to his name after Saturday's trip to North Macedonia; Kieron Bowie's early finish and a second-half John McGinn penalty papered over another afternoon of wasted chances.

The victory arrived with a cost, however. Scott McKenna was shown a straight red card for a late challenge in the closing stages, and his suspension will force a reshuffle at the back, and that will make it more difficult for a defence that has kept two clean sheets in their last five matches.

A major concern for Scotland will be their ability to consistently threaten in the final third given they have scored just twice in their past five games, though perhaps it should not be a surprise with the likes of Scott McTominay currently unavailable.

The hosts had drawn one and lost three of the four games prior to their victory against North Macedonia, and they failed to find the back of the net in any of those fixtures. Tuesday's clash will be Pocognoli's fourth game in charge, and he will want to quickly get fans onside.

There is a landmark of a different kind at the back of the team, with Robertson set to earn his 101st cap, and that would put him just one behind the nation's appearance record holder Kenny Dalglish.

Scotland's place in this group is precarious rather than comfortable. A loss would almost certainly prevent them from being able to finish in the first-placed promotion spot, while a loss would put them three points behind second-placed Slovenia in the promotion playoff spot with just six more points to play for.

Slovenia sit second in the group having taken four points from their opening three matches, though they come into Tuesday's clash having suffered a 2-1 loss against Switzerland on October 3.

The visitors' biggest problem has been their lack of firepower, with star striker Benjamin Sesko not part of their squad due to injury issues that have plagued him since the final stages of last season.

Zan Vipotnik, who won the Championship Golden Boot with Swansea City last season, is the man left to carry the attacking burden. He will need support from a midfield duo of Sandi Lovric and Mark Zabukovnik.

There is at least a reassuring presence behind that attack. Jan Oblak was the outstanding performer when these two sides last met, repelling Scotland time after time in Ljubljana.

His continued excellence in goal is the reason Slovenia have conceded only five goals in five matches despite the chaos in front of him. Vanja Drkusic, who went off injured during that same draw with Scotland, has recovered.

Cesar has his own personal connection to this fixture that adds a layer of history to Tuesday's rematch. The Slovenian boss was sent off as a player the last time these countries met competitively before their Nations League meeting, a 2-2 draw in Ljubljana in 2017 that ended Scotland's hopes of reaching a World Cup play-off.

He now returns to Hampden Park, though this time in the technical area, and he will try to engineer a first win over a country that has had his nation's number for 20 years.

Team news and predicted lineups: Scotland vs Slovenia

Scotland team news

Jack Hendry returns to contention having served his one-match ban against North Macedonia win. He is the obvious replacement for the suspended McKenna in a back three that otherwise picks itself around Luis Binks and Stephen Welsh.

Pocognoli has shown little appetite for wholesale changes between matches in this window. With Ben Gannon-Doak impressing in the wide role that won his side a penalty on Saturday, the shape and personnel look set to stay largely the same for the visit of Slovenia.

The bigger question is whether Oli McBurnie and Bowie can finally turn the chances Scotland create into goals. Both players went close repeatedly in the goalless draw with Slovenia, and a home crowd desperate for a reason to believe in the new era will not tolerate another night of fine margins without reward.

McGinn's penalty against North Macedonia took him level with Lawrie Reilly's record of 22 Scotland goals. The Aston Villa star may be the team's most reliable source of goals, particularly in light of McTominay's absence.

Pocognoli has spoken openly about wanting his squad to play with a clear, shared identity rather than rely on individual moments. A first home win in front of a Hampden crowd desperate to see that take shape would carry weight well beyond three points.

Slovenia team news

Losing three senior forwards in one window would unsettle most national sides. Cesar has been left to build his attack around Vipotnik, and the head coach could field Danijel Sturm and Aljosa Matko in supportive roles.

Vipotnik scored in his side's loss against Switzerland over North Macedonia, and that was his third goal in six games for club and country, though it was just the first time he netted in four matches.

Drkusic may not be at his best due to the injury issues he has been dealing with, but he should be fit enough to play a role against Scotland on Tuesday.

Jan Oblak remains the one guaranteed world-class presence on the Slovenia team sheet. His form at the other end of the pitch was the single biggest reason the first meeting between these sides finished goalless, and Scotland will have to find a way past him this time for Tuesday's prediction of goals at both ends to hold up.

Cesar is still relatively new to the job after succeeding Matjaz Kek, and he will face another tough task on Tuesday given he will be missing key attacking options. Results this week could shape how much patience the current head coach is shown.

Head-to-head: Scotland vs Slovenia

Scotland have an unusually dominant record over their opponents, winning two and drawing their other four meetings with Slovenia. The goals are split 7-3 in the Scots' favour across the whole series.

Of those two victories, one includes a 3-0 away victory in 2005, as well as a late Hampden winner from substitute Chris Martin in 2017. The overall picture is one of consistent, if unspectacular, superiority.

The two countries' last competitive meeting before this Nations League group, an October 2017 World Cup qualifier in Ljubljana, finished 2-2 and ended any faint hope Scotland had of reaching a play-off.

Tuesday's rematch of the goalless opener in the 2026-27 Nations League gives both sides a chance to show that draw was not the level either is capable of. Scotland created the better chances that night without finding a way past Oblak, and a repeat of that pattern would extend Slovenia's wait for a first win over their opponents into a seventh attempt.

History is heavily on the home side here, but it is not as if Slovenia have routinely been beaten by their hosts. A weakened Slovenia attack still carries enough threat through Vipotnik and Matko to make a difference.

Scotland vs Slovenia predictions and betting tips

Odds correct as of Sunday, 4 October 2026, 17:00 BST.

Pocognoli's reshuffled Scotland side can extend their long unbeaten record over Slovenia and finally reward a home crowd with goals at both ends. The best football betting sites UK have the hosts as warm but not overwhelming favourites for a fixture that looks too open to be a one-sided affair.

For readers still finding their way around these markets, our betting guides cover how each of the markets above actually works. The SpreadEx betting site review is worth a look too, for anyone shopping around for a new home ahead of the November fixtures.