Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction, Tips and Odds | Premier League

Matthias Jaissle’s first season at Newcastle United has swung between promise and alarm, and Saturday brings a Premier League side showing exactly the same symptoms. Aston Villa arrive at St James’ Park having won just once in the Premier League all season, a mirror of the hosts’ own leaky form, and Unai Emery’s side will do it while missing three first-choice defenders.

Newcastle sit 11th with eight points from six games, five places and three points above Villa, who are 16th after an opening-weekend defeat was compounded by a home loss to Nottingham Forest in September. Kickoff at St James’ Park is 17:30 BST on Saturday 17 October.

Preview: Newcastle vs Aston Villa form guide

Jaissle took charge in August after Eddie Howe’s resignation, and the defeat at Coventry last time out showed how unsettled his back line remains. Newcastle have shipped 13 league goals in six matches this season, a defensive record more suited to a relegation fight than the European places this club has grown used to targeting.

There is a steadier thread at St James’ Park itself. Newcastle have gone three home league matches unbeaten this season, beating Hull City and drawing with Bournemouth and Liverpool, a run that offers Jaissle something to build Saturday’s selection around even while the away form stays grim.

Joe Willock has carried the goal threat so far, level on two for the season alongside the injured Anthony Elanga, with Harvey Barnes, Lewis Hall and Yoane Wissa each contributing one. Barnes and Wissa both figure in the likely attacking line this weekend and will need to be sharper than they were at Coventry.

Jaissle’s selection is complicated further by a lengthy fitness list. Ewen Jaouen and Jacob Ramsey remain long-term absentees, Elanga has no firm return date, and three more players, Amar Dedic, Daniel Burn and William Osula, are managing their way back from injury without yet being risked for a full ninety minutes.

Malick Thiaw has worn the captain’s armband in Newcastle’s most recent matches, a sign of how much the German centre-back’s standing has grown under Jaissle even as the back four around him keeps shifting through injury. His partnership with Sven Botman is likely to be the one settled element of a defence that has otherwise been in constant flux.

Emery’s side looked a completely different team in midweek, thrashing Fenerbahce 6-0 in the Champions League, but that European form has simply not travelled into the Premier League. Villa have won just once in the league all season, a run that began with an opening-weekend defeat, and they sit three points behind Newcastle in the table.

Away from home specifically, Villa have taken four points from three matches and conceded six goals doing it, a numbers problem that mirrors Newcastle’s own defensive drift and sets up a contest where both back lines look vulnerable rather than settled.

Nicolas Jackson leads the scoring with two goals, with John McGinn, Johan Manzambi and Emiliano Buendia each chipping in one. McGinn’s energy from midfield has been one of the more consistent features of Villa’s season regardless of the result around him.

Villa’s bigger concern is at the back, where Matteo Ruggeri, Ian Maatsen and Amadou Onana are all unavailable and Aaron Wan-Bissaka has been redeployed at left-back to cover for Ruggeri specifically. That reshuffle, forced rather than chosen, is the single biggest swing factor in how open Saturday’s game becomes.

Team news: Newcastle vs Aston Villa predicted lineups

Newcastle United

Jaissle has at least one piece of genuinely good news to work with. Joelinton made his first appearance since May as a substitute at Coventry, and while the head coach has been careful to stress the Brazilian is not yet at full match fitness, his return to matchday squads gives Newcastle a senior option back in central midfield.

Amar Dedic and Daniel Burn are in a similar position, both available again after injury but short of the conditioning needed to start. Jaissle has said it will take another couple of weeks before that pair are back to their physical best, which points toward both starting the weekend among the substitutes.

Jaissle looks set to shift to a 4-2-3-1 for Saturday, with Lewis Miley filling in at right-back and Joelinton partnering Nico Gonzalez in a double pivot in front of the back four. That reshuffle would push Jacob Murphy out to the right of an attacking three, with Wissa played centrally in behind Matias Fernandez-Pardo as the lone striker.

Newcastle (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes; Fernandez-Pardo.

Aston Villa

Emery’s defensive options have been stretched thin enough that Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a natural right-back, is currently filling in on the left in Matteo Ruggeri’s absence, with Pau Torres also back among the fit options at centre-back after a recent spell on the bench.

Further forward, Leon Goretzka made his first Villa appearance only in midweek, an 83rd-minute substitute cameo against Fenerbahce after joining as a free agent from Bayern Munich. A first start this soon would be a significant step up, so Emery is more likely to keep him in reserve at St James’ Park.

Joao Gomes is available again after serving an earlier three-match suspension in full, and The False 9’s lineup for Saturday is built straight from the team that beat Fenerbahce 6-0, with Gomes restored in place of Boubacar Kamara as the one change given three days of rest between fixtures.

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Wan-Bissaka; Gomes, Barkley; McGinn, Manzambi, Mbaye; Jackson.

Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle hold the clear advantage across 178 meetings between these two clubs, with 77 wins to Villa’s 61 and 40 draws stretching back through more than a century of fixtures. The most recent of the last six meetings went Newcastle’s way too, a 3-1 FA Cup win at Villa Park in February.

That recent record is not quite as one-sided as it first looks. Villa were the team to win the last Premier League meeting at St James’ Park itself, a 2-0 success back in January, a result that sits awkwardly alongside Newcastle’s unbeaten home league record this season and is worth remembering before leaning too heavily on the venue.

Both squads have changed enough since those results, through managerial changes, injuries and new arrivals, that this head-to-head record is better treated as background colour than a genuine guide to Saturday’s outcome. The form table and current team news carry far more weight than history here.

Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction and tips

Odds correct as of Thursday, 15 October 2026, 15:00 BST.

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For more selections across the rest of the Premier League weekend, our sports betting tips hub is updated fixture by fixture. Bet365 price Newcastle as narrow favourites for this one, and our full Sky Bet sportsbook review is worth a look if you fancy comparing that price elsewhere, while the Sky Bet new customer offer is also live for anyone signing up fresh this week.