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Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Thursday 29 October, 7:45pm
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- Everton – Full Time Result
- Over 2.5 – Over/Under Total Goals
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Everton have not lifted a major trophy since 1995, and with back-to-back 2-0 defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal having dropped them to 11th in the Premier League, this Carabao Cup fourth-round tie looks like one of David Moyes’s more realistic routes to silverware this season. They host Newcastle United at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Thursday, with Matthias Jaissle’s heavily rebuilt visitors sitting just three places and a single point above them in the table.
The recent pattern between these two sides at Everton’s new stadium leans one way far more sharply than their overall record suggests: Newcastle’s last visit, in November, produced the home side’s heaviest defeat there, a 4-1 win built on a Malick Thiaw brace. Everton will be desperate for a different outcome this time, with a place in the quarter-finals at stake in a competition that looks like their clearest route to ending a trophy drought stretching back over 30 years.
Preview: Everton vs Newcastle form guide
Everton’s problem right now is not the cup form that got them here, it is the Premier League form in recent matches. Wins over Preston North End and Wolves, the latter a repeat of the fixture where their own cup run ended 12 months ago, carried them unbeaten into round four, but they head into this match after two straight goalless games.
That blank run against Chelsea and Arsenal has left Thierno Barry, Everton’s only recognised senior striker after a deadline-day move for Folarin Balogun collapsed, under huge pressure to end the goalless streak as the focus of their attack. Barry has scored six times in 10 appearances in all competitions this season, though half of that tally came in one afternoon against Preston, so Thursday is as much a test of whether he can find the net in open, competitive moments as it is of Everton’s wider form.
There is also a cautionary tale sitting over any heavy team changes from Moyes this time. Everton were knocked out of this competition in the third round last season by Wolves, after seven changes to the side backfired badly, and this year they beat the same opponents at home in the third round on the way to this tie. The lesson in Everton circles since has been that selective rotation is sensible but stripping out too much experience in one go is not.
Off the pitch, Everton’s American owners, the Friedkin Group, confirmed on 9 October that they are exploring new investment options, including a potential sale of a controlling stake, less than two years after buying the club. Moyes has said he has never met or spoken to the group’s chief executive, Dan Friedkin, who has yet to attend a game at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and it is the uncertain backdrop against which this entire season, cup run included, is being played out.
Newcastle’s issue has been almost the opposite: goals have never been far away, for either side, but their own defence has been the problem. They have conceded 14 times in eight league games, the second-worst return of any side in the top half of the table behind only Chelsea’s 15, and heavy defeats to Coventry City and Leeds United both finished 1-4.
Matthias Jaissle’s first months in English football have coincided with one of the biggest squad overhauls in the club’s recent history. Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon left for a combined fee above £200m over the summer, and record signing Nick Woltemade was loaned out to Juventus barely a year after arriving, so Jaissle is still shaping a team around largely new faces while results fluctuate.
A 2-0 win away at Crystal Palace last weekend arrested a two-game losing run and gave Jaissle something to build from heading into Merseyside. Newcastle’s own cup run has been earned rather than gifted, too: a 3-2 home win over West Bromwich Albion in round two, in which substitute Harvey Barnes scored twice against a former loan club, followed by a tighter 1-0 win away at Millwall thanks to Joe Willock’s deflected late winner.
Team news: Everton vs Newcastle predicted lineups
Everton team news
With Branthwaite out and Mykolenko unlikely to start, James Garner is expected to continue at left-back, the role he filled after Mykolenko went off against Arsenal, while James Tarkowski and Jake O’Brien pair up in the middle. Grealish will be fortunate to feature at all given his illness, which leaves Moyes with limited options to freshen things up further.
Given the Wolves lesson from last season, expect Moyes to make targeted changes rather than a wholesale rotation, keeping enough of his first-choice spine on the pitch to avoid a repeat upset. Barry leads the line again by default, with no alternative senior centre-forward on the books since the Balogun deal fell through.
Everton predicted lineup vs Newcastle
Pickford; Maitland-Niles, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Garner; Armstrong, Hackney; Dibling, Dewsbury-Hall, George; Barry
Newcastle team news
Jaissle gets a lift in attack regardless of the goalkeeper and full-back absences: Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey both came off the bench for the final 13 minutes of the Crystal Palace win and are no longer doubts, giving him fresher legs to call on for a cup tie four days before the same two sides meet again in the league.
With Jaouen sidelined, backup goalkeeper Nick Pope could replace Lukas Hornicek in goal, and with Livramento out, Amar Dedic is the senior option at right-back. Fernandez-Pardo’s continued absence would leave Yoane Wissa as Newcastle’s most advanced recognised forward, with Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy the likeliest wide support.
A cup tie sandwiched between two league fixtures is also the kind of game in which Jaissle has previously shown he will freshen things up, both to manage a thin squad through a congested week and to give fringe players like Sean Steur and Bazoumana Toure a chance to show what the summer rebuild has bought the club.
Newcastle predicted lineup vs Everton
Pope; Dedic, Thiaw, Schar, Hall; Willock, Osula, Gonzalez; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes
Head-to-head: Everton vs Newcastle
Everton hold a clear edge across their 189 league meetings with Newcastle, though the two clubs are level on recent form against each other. Everton have won three of the last eight, with Newcastle also securing three victories alongside two draws, and the pattern has swung sharply from game to game rather than settling into anything predictable.
The most recent visit to Hill Dickinson Stadium, in November last year, is the one Newcastle fans will remember fondest. Malick Thiaw scored twice, including a header from a corner inside the first minute, and further goals from Lewis Miley and Nick Woltemade put the visitors 3-0 up by half-time in a 4-1 win, Everton’s heaviest defeat at their new ground and only the second time a visiting side had won there at all.
Everton had the last word in the league fixture between the two, though, winning 3-2 away at St James’ Park in February.
These two also meet again in the league just four days after this tie, at St James’ Park on 2 November, adding an unusual rhythm to the week for both squads without changing anything about how either approaches Thursday’s game on its own terms.
Our Everton vs Newcastle prediction and tips
Odds correct as of Monday, 26 October 2026, 22:30 GMT.
- Thierno Barry to score for Everton, with the goals they need coming from their only senior centre-forward once again
- Yoane Wissa to get on the scoresheet for Newcastle as their most advanced recognised forward
- Expect goals at both ends given how porous both defences have looked recently
Ellis has been working as a freelance sports writer since graduating from University in 2023. He is especially passionate about football, with a particular love for Manchester United.