Portugal vs Croatia prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Portugal and Croatia meet at Toronto Stadium in a Round of 32 tie that pits two of European football's most decorated nations, and two of its ageing legends, against each other with a place in the Round of 16 at stake.

Roberto Martinez's side carry more depth, a higher FIFA ranking and a better recent record into Thursday night's midnight kick-off, but Zlatko Dalic's Croatia have repeatedly shown the ability to survive scenarios that look difficult on paper.

Preview: Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal finished runners-up in Group K, collecting five points from one win and two draws, with a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan the standout result of a group-stage campaign that never quite hit full throttle.

The stalemates with DR Congo and Colombia showcased a team lacking urgency and made to settle for a point, and the biggest concern for Martinez will be the fact that his side's creativity has been difficult to sustain across 90 minutes.

Cristiano Ronaldo, captaining his country at 41 with 231 caps and 145 international goals to his name, remains Portugal's primary reference point in attack; his presence in the penalty area on set pieces and second balls gives the XI a consistent goal threat even when open-play build-up becomes laboured.

Bruno Fernandes operates as both the most creative outlet and the biggest threat behind Ronaldo, with 29 international goals in 92 caps making him one of the competition's most productive midfielders, and his delivery from deep and late arrivals into the box are the mechanisms by which Portugal breach compact defensive structures.

The holding pair of Vitinha and Joao Neves give Martinez the platform to recover the ball and recycle quickly, with Neves in particular developing into one of Europe's most assured midfielders at only 21-years-old, his composure in tight spaces repeatedly helping Portugal escape organised presses.

Defensively, Ruben Dias has been the anchor of a back four that has conceded just three goals in its last five games, with clean sheets against Uzbekistan and Colombia suggesting the defensive unit is growing in confidence as the World Cup goes on.

Additionally, the squad depth available to Martinez is a significant advantage in this knockout tie: Goncalo Ramos, Rafael Leao, Bernardo Silva and Francisco Trincao can all alter the shape and tempo of a game from the bench, ensuring that Portugal will be threatening even when the starting lineup fails to find its rhythm.

Croatia's route to the Round of 32 was a study in contrasts: a 4-2 opening defeat to England left Dalic facing immediate questions about his side's defensive shape, before consecutive wins over Panama and Ghana steadied the ship and confirmed qualification.

Luka Modric, at 40 and playing at what is likely his final World Cup, was influential in the two victories, his ability to find space between the lines and orchestrate attacks at a measured pace still intact even if the explosive covering runs of earlier years are gone.

Andrej Kramaric, with 36 goals in 118 international appearances, remains Croatia's most reliable source of goals, and his movement inside the penalty area off the shoulder of the last defender gives the team a consistent threat from crosses and set pieces even when possession is limited.

Martin Baturina, at 23, offers genuine dynamism in Croatia's attack; the Como midfielder has shown that he can carry the ball at speed in tight areas during his early international appearances, and his performances in the group stage gave the team an injection of youthful energy that the veterans around him benefit from.

The concern for the Blazers is the eight goals they have conceded across their last five games, and Marin Pongracic and Josip Sutalo at centre-back will face a significant test against the variety of attacking options Portugal can rotate through.

Josko Gvardiol at left back gives Croatia a player capable of contributing in all phases, and his displays at Manchester City suggest that Portugal's right side will not operate with impunity, but the overall defensive structure has shown enough vulnerability for Martinez's attack to find openings.

Team news: Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal

Martinez has his full 26-man squad available for this fixture, with no injuries or suspensions preventing him from selecting his strongest available XI, and the absence of any enforced decisions means the team is likely to reflect continuity from the group stage.

The main debate is around the forward line; Ronaldo is expected to lead the attack, but Goncalo Ramos offers a different profile, and Martinez may turn to the AC Milan striker if Portugal's open-play chance creation requires a more active presence at centre-forward to stretch Croatia's defensive block.

Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leao provide high-quality options from the bench and give Portugal genuine match-winning ability in the final third without requiring a change to the starting system; both are likely to be introduced if the team need to increase the tempo or find a goal.

Joao Cancelo's availability at right back gives Martinez overlapping width on that flank, and with Nuno Mendes equally capable of driving forward on the left, the fullback positions will be a key source of attacking overloads against Croatia's expected compact defensive shape.

Croatia

Dalic likewise has a full squad ready, but his team selection is less settled; the manager publicly voiced frustration with aspects of Croatia's defensive structure after the England defeat, and there are questions about whether the back four that started against Ghana on matchday three will be retained or if the manager will consider adjustments.

Mateo Kovacic adds passing quality and intensity to the midfield three alongside Modric and Petar Sucic, and the trio's ability to press effectively and win back possession in central areas will be the deciding factor in how much space Portugal's lauded double pivot is given to play through.

Ante Budimir is expected to lead the line as the lone striker, with his aerial presence and hold-up play giving Croatia an outlet when they look to relieve defensive pressure; the 34-year-old's record of seven goals in 40 caps is modest for a centre-forward, but his work rate and link play have made him a reliable selection under Dalic.

Ivan Perisic at 37 carries an enormous amount of experience in knockout football and his delivery from the left channel remains one of Croatia's most reliable set-piece weapons; how much he can contribute over 90 minutes against Cancelo's energy and the press behind him will be one of the key physical contests of the match.

Portugal vs Croatia predicted XIs

Portugal (4-2-3-1): D Costa; J Cancelo, R Veiga, R Dias, N Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; P Neto, B Fernandes, J Felix; C Ronaldo

Croatia (4-3-3): D Livakovic; J Stanisic, M Pongracic, J Sutalo, J Gvardiol; P Sucic, L Modric, M Kovacic; M Baturina, A Budimir, I Perisic

Head-to-head: Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal hold a commanding lead in their historical record against Croatia, winning seven of 10 meetings with just one defeat, a body of evidence that speaks to a consistent quality advantage across different eras and competition formats.

The sole Croatian victory in this head-to-head came in a June 2024 friendly, a result that carried limited weight for either team but served as a reminder that Croatia can beat Portugal on any given night if the conditions are right and Modric finds the space he needs.

That triumph was followed up by the most recent encounter between the sides, a 1-1 Nations League stalemate in November 2024 that saw Joao Felix open the scoring for Portugal in the first half, before Gvardiol netted an equaliser just beyond the hour mark.

Portugal's 4-1 Nations League win in September 2020 is the most decisive margin between the sides this century, and while personnel have changed considerably since then, the gap in squad depth and attacking quality that produced that result remains a feature of the rivalry.

Our Portugal vs Croatia prediction and tips

Portugal are priced at 1.80 to win inside 90 minutes, a price that William Hill and the leading operators have settled on as a fair reflection of Portugal's quality advantage; our full guide to World Cup betting sites covers all four markets in this fixture alongside the rest of the Round of 32 schedule. For a full breakdown of William Hill's football markets, see our William Hill review.

The player-to-score and goals markets are where the sharpest prices are available for this tie, and those joining via new bookmakers for the knockout stage will find competitive pricing across the board for this fixture.