Paraguay vs France prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Paraguay and France meet at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field on Saturday, 4 July, kicking off their Round of 16 tie at 10pm BST as they fight for a place in the quarter-finals of World Cup 2026.

France, third in the world under Didier Deschamps, are the overwhelming favourites, though a penalty victory over Germany has demonstrated that Gustavo Alfaro's Paraguay can pose a threat to higher-ranked nations.

Preview: Paraguay vs France

Alfaro has guided Paraguay to this stage on the back of a mixed but resilient recent record, the South American side showing they are capable of grinding out results against strong opposition.

In the Round of 32, Paraguay became the first team to ever beat Germany in a penalty shootout at the World Cup, winning 4-3 on spot kicks after a 1-1 draw, a result that confirmed this squad's ability to go toe-to-toe with top-level players – even when the pressure is highest.

Former Newcastle United star Miguel Almiron brings experience and craft to Paraguay's attack, the 32-year-old having accumulated 79 international caps and 10 goals across his career and remaining one of the most influential figures available to Alfaro.

Diego Gomez, who plays his club football for Brighton and Hove Albion, adds technical quality and mobility in the middle of the park, while Julio Enciso has contributed five goals in 36 international appearances and will be expected to provide Paraguay's primary attacking threat from advanced areas.

However, Los Guaranies' scoring record does raise legitimate concerns heading into this tie, given the side have managed just seven goals across their last five matches and are yet to find the back of the net more than once in a game during this summer's tournament.

Deschamps has France performing at their best consistently, the world's third-ranked side having won each of their last five internationals in a run that spans varying levels of opposition.

Les Bleus' attacking output during that run has been exceptional, with the side scoring at least three goals in each of those five recent matches, a standard that saw them thrash Sweden 3-0 in their Round of 32 tie.

Kylian Mbappe leads the attack as captain, his record of 62 international goals from 102 appearances placing him in a rare category of finishers at the top end of the game.

Michael Olise has developed into a talismanic figure alongside the captain, contributing five assists so far at the World Cup – as well as seven goals in 21 international appearances overall – while Ballon d'Or holder Ousmane Dembele and his Paris Saint-Germain teammate Bradley Barcola have the pace and technical ability to operate in tight spaces from wide positions.

Aurelien Tchouameni and Adrien Rabiot form a double pivot in central midfield that provides defensive cover and positional discipline, giving France the platform to commit to a four-man forward line without leaving themselves exposed at the back.

Team news: Paraguay vs France

Paraguay

Orlando Gill starts in goal, with the experienced Gustavo Gomez anchoring the defensive line; the Palmeiras centre-back brings 93 international caps and a leadership quality that has kept Paraguay's shape intact at the World Cup.

Omar Alderete is listed as doubtful due to a knee injury that has prevented him from training with the rest of the squad, and Jose Canale should be on hand to provide direct cover at centre-back should the Sunderland star be sidelined.

Alfaro's attacking pair of Enciso and Avalos is expected to lead the line, hoping to make the difference in the rare moments that Paraguay have to launch a counter.

Matias Galarza and Andres Cubas are set to anchor Paraguay's central midfield, upholding the disciplined structure Alfaro relies on to keep his team compact and difficult to break down through the middle of the pitch.

France

Mike Maignan starts in goal behind a central defensive pairing of Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, a combination that has given France considerable defensive solidity throughout their World Cup campaign.

Aston Villa's Lucas Digne at left-back and Barcelona's Jules Kounde at right-back complete the four-man unit, both players complementing a forward line that already offers variety and pace.

Marcus Thuram is a doubt with a calf injury, having been limited to bike work at Bentley University on Wednesday rather than joining collective training, and Deschamps has Jean-Philippe Mateta as an alternative on the bench should the Inter Milan forward not recover in time.

Paraguay vs France injuries and predicted XIs

Predicted Paraguay XI (4-4-2): Gill; Alonso, G Gomez, Canale, Caceres; Galarza, Cubas, D Gomez, Almiron; Enciso, Avalos

Predicted France XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Digne, Upamecano, Saliba, Kounde; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Barcola, Olise, Dembele; Mbappe

Head-to-head: Paraguay vs France

France and Paraguay have met on five previous occasions across all competitions, with the European side winning three and drawing the remaining two.

The most recent encounter between the sides came in a June 2017 friendly that France won 5-0, a result that underlined the disparity that has characterised this head-to-head record.

Notably, Paraguay and France locked horns in the Round of 16 at the 1998 World Cup, a clash that saw Les Bleus come out 1-0 winners thanks to a golden goal from Laurent Blanc.

Their very first meeting – at the 1958 World Cup – produced a 7-3 France win, and is still the highest-scoring fixture between the two nations.

With the most recent clash a nine-year-old friendly and the one competitive fixture in modern memory more than a quarter of a century ago, the only conclusion to be drawn from this head-to-head record is that France have been the dominant side, and they remain the favourites this weekend.

Our Paraguay vs France prediction and tips

BoyleSports have France to win to nil at 1.70 and Olise to score anytime at 2.50; see our BoyleSports review for their full World Cup market guide.

Those planning to bet on the fixture will find a round-up of the best World Cup betting sites on TNT Sports, while our guide to new UK bookmakers covers the latest sign-up options for those yet to open an account.