Japan vs Sweden prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Japan face Sweden in the final Group F match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Thursday evening at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Hajime Moriyasu is expected to make a massive seven changes from the side that demolished Tunisia 4-0, with the Samurai Blue on four points and needing at least a draw to confirm their place in the round of 32.

Sweden, sitting on three points after beating Tunisia 5-1 and losing 5-1 to the Netherlands, need at least a draw to confirm their place in the round of 32. Graham Potter is set to keep faith with the starting eleven that faced the Dutch, meaning Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres are likely to lead the line against a heavily rotated Japanese defence. For those looking at the football betting markets, this rotation dynamic creates a fascinating set of angles.

Preview: Japan vs Sweden

Japan arrive in the enviable position of having already done the hard work. Four points from two matches, six goals scored and just two conceded, with a goal difference of +4 that mirrors the Netherlands at the top of the group. Moriyasu's side won five pre-tournament friendlies, including impressive 1-0 victories over England and Scotland away from home, before drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands and then hammering Tunisia at the World Cup.

The 4-0 demolition of Tunisia was the largest World Cup victory in Japanese history. Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside four minutes, Ayase Ueda added a brace in the 31st and 83rd minutes, and Junya Ito also found the back of the net in the 69th minute. It was also the 1,000th match in World Cup history.

The big story heading into this fixture is the scale of the expected Japanese rotation. Moriyasu is set to make seven changes to the starting eleven, resting key performers Ueda, Kamada, Ito, Keito Nakamura, Ko Itakura, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Hiroki Ito. Only goalkeeper Zion Suzuki and midfielders Ao Tanaka and Kaishu Sano are likely to retain their places.

The expected defensive replacements Shogo Taniguchi (39 caps), Junnosuke Suzuki (seven caps) and Tsuyoshi Watanabe (12 caps) have a combined 58 international appearances between them, compared with 112 for the first-choice trio. Koki Ogawa, who has 11 goals in 16 caps, is expected to lead the line in place of the prolific Ueda.

Moriyasu clearly has one eye on the knockout rounds, and the gamble could pay off provided the reserve players perform at a level sufficient to avoid defeat. The depth of the Japanese squad is respectable, but the step down in experience is significant.

Sweden present a completely different picture. Potter has the urgency of a side that cannot afford to lose and the quality to do more than just survive. The 5-1 victory over Tunisia on matchday one was electric, with Yasin Ayari scoring twice from outside the box in the seventh and 90+6 minutes, Isak converting in the 30th minute, Gyokeres adding in the 59th and Mattias Svanberg scoring with his first touch off the bench.

The collapse against the Netherlands told a different story. Brian Brobbey struck in the fifth and 17th minutes, Cody Gakpo added in the 47th and 54th, and Crysencio Summerville completed the humiliation in the 89th minute. Anthony Elanga scored a consolation in the 59th minute, but the damage was irreparable. Potter attempted a system change during the hydration break in the 27th minute, but it had no effect.

The Swedish attack remains the side's greatest asset. Isak, now at Liverpool, has 60 caps and 18 goals for his nation. Gyokeres, who finished as Arsenal's top scorer with 21 goals across all competitions (14 in the Premier League), has 21 goals in 35 appearances for Sweden. Together they form one of the most dangerous strike partnerships in the tournament.

The defensive record is the concern. Sweden have conceded 13 goals across their last five matches and have not kept a single clean sheet. Against a full-strength Japan side that would be worrying enough, though against this rotated version, the focus should be entirely on the attacking end.

The Group F arithmetic is straightforward. The Netherlands and Japan sit on four points each, Sweden on three, Tunisia on zero. A draw would take Sweden to four points and almost certainly into the round of 32, while a victory would guarantee it. Defeat, however, would leave qualification dependent on results elsewhere and the final standings of the third-placed teams.

Team news: Japan vs Sweden

Japan

Kubo remains the most notable absentee. The Real Sociedad playmaker sustained a left knee injury in the 75th minute of the opening match against the Netherlands following a clash with Denzel Dumfries. Scans revealed damage, though the injury is not considered severe. Kubo remains in the 26-man squad but is unavailable for the Sweden match.

Wataru Endo, the original captain, was cut from the squad entirely on the first day of the tournament due to injury. Machino was called up as his replacement, though his own fitness remains a doubt. Itakura inherited the armband.

The headline selection decision is the expected wholesale rotation. Moriyasu is likely to rest Itakura, Tomiyasu, Hiroki Ito, Ueda, Kamada, Junya Ito and Nakamura. Taniguchi, J Suzuki and Watanabe could come in across the back three, with Daizen Maeda and Yukinari Sugawara set to take the wing-back roles. Ritsu Doan and Yuito Suzuki are expected to operate behind lone striker Ogawa.

Sweden

Sweden have no major injury concerns heading into this decisive fixture. Smith of FC St. Pauli is the only player whose availability is uncertain, though he was not part of the starting eleven in either of the first two matches.

Potter is expected to name an unchanged side from the Netherlands defeat. Victor Lindelof, Isak Hien and Gustaf Lagerbielke are likely to form the back three, with Gabriel Gudmundsson and Alexander Bernhardsson providing width. Ayari and Jesper Karlstrom should anchor the midfield, with Benjamin Nygren set to play behind the Isak-Gyokeres strike partnership. Those interested in the latest odds can check our Ladbrokes sportsbook review for a full breakdown of their football markets.

Japan vs Sweden predicted lineups

Japan predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Z Suzuki; Taniguchi, J Suzuki, Watanabe; Maeda, Tanaka, Sano, Sugawara; Doan, Y Suzuki; Ogawa.

Sweden predicted XI (3-4-1-2): Kristoffer Nordfeldt; Lindelof, Hien, Lagerbielke; Gudmundsson, Ayari, Karlstrom, Bernhardsson; Nygren; Isak, Gyokeres.

Head-to-head: Japan vs Sweden

Japan and Sweden have met five times at senior men's level, with Sweden winning two, Japan winning one and the remaining two ending in draws. The two nations have never previously met at a World Cup.

Their first encounter came at the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin, where Japan won 3-2. There was then a gap of almost 60 years before the next meeting.

Three friendlies followed in quick succession during the 1990s. Japan and Sweden drew 2-2 at the Umbro Cup in June 1995, then drew 1-1 at the Carlsberg Cup in February 1996, with Sweden winning 6-5 on penalties. In February 1997, Sweden won 1-0 at the King's Cup in Thailand.

The most recent meeting was a friendly in May 2002, which ended 1-1 in Japan, just weeks before the World Cup that both nations competed in, though they were placed in separate groups. Thursday's encounter is therefore their first meeting in 24 years and the first to take place at a World Cup.

Our Japan vs Sweden prediction and tips