Netherlands vs Sweden prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Netherlands and Sweden meet on Saturday in Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Oranje drew 2-2 with Japan on Matchday One and sit third in the group on one point, while Sweden lead the standings after hammering Tunisia 5-1 in Monterrey.

Ronald Koeman's side need a victory to regain control of their group-stage destiny. Sweden, galvanised by a debut in which four different players found the net, would take a significant step towards the last 16 with another win in Houston.

Netherlands vs Sweden form and preview

Netherlands produced an outstanding qualifying campaign in European Group G, winning six of eight matches with two draws, scoring 27 goals and conceding just four. The preparation phase told a different story, with an unexpected home defeat to Algeria (0-1) and a draw against Ecuador (1-1) exposing vulnerabilities that had been absent during qualification.

Against Japan in Dallas, the Oranje controlled possession (54%) and created ten chances, six of them on target. Virgil van Dijk headed the opener in the 50th minute and Crysencio Summerville curled in a second on 64 minutes, the ball clipping the inside of the post on its way in.

Japan equalised in the 89th minute from a set piece, exposing a concerning weakness in the air. Ryan Gravenberch, who provided two assists, was the standout Dutch performer on Matchday One.

Koeman lost Xavi Simons to an ACL rupture in April at Tottenham and Matthijs de Ligt to back surgery in May before the squad was even named. The absence of Simons, the creative fulcrum during qualifying with three goals and a string of assists, forced a redistribution of attacking responsibility across Tijjani Reijnders, Frenkie de Jong and Cody Gakpo.

Quinten Timber's concussion has now further depleted the midfield options. Netherlands remain a squad packed with quality, but they arrive at this second fixture with visible cracks.

Sweden, ranked 38th in the world, reached the finals the hard way, winning just two of eight qualifiers and needing the play-offs to secure their place. Graham Potter was appointed in October 2025 following a home qualifying campaign that included defeats to Switzerland and Kosovo, and he quickly installed a three-at-the-back system with wing-backs, built around the Viktor Gyokeres-Alexander Isak partnership.

Against Tunisia, the blueprint worked to perfection with four different scorers. Yasin Ayari opened the scoring in the seventh minute with a strike from distance, Isak added a second on the half-hour, Gyokeres made it three on 59 minutes and Mattias Svanberg scored just 16 seconds after coming off the bench. Ayari completed his brace in stoppage time (90+6).

The caveat is the level of opposition. Tunisia, ranked 45th, were tactically overrun, and their manager was sacked in the aftermath. The real test for Potter arrives now, against an Oranje side of a markedly higher calibre.

Sweden's recent friendlies underline a defensive fragility that persists under Potter. A 3-1 defeat to Norway and a 2-2 draw with Greece preceded the World Cup, and in seven matches under Potter's stewardship, Sweden have not kept a single clean sheet.

Team news: Netherlands vs Sweden

Netherlands

The squad was already weakened before the tournament began by the absences of Xavi Simons (ACL rupture in April at Tottenham) and Matthijs de Ligt (back surgery in May), neither of whom made the final squad. Simons contributed three goals and a string of assists during qualifying, and his loss forced Koeman into a wholesale rethink of his attacking set-up.

Memphis Depay, the all-time leading scorer for the national team with 55 goals in 109 caps, is available but did not start against Japan. Micky van de Ven picked up a yellow card in the 91st minute against Japan but is not at risk of suspension.

Sweden

Potter has a full complement of 26 players to choose from for Matchday 2. No injuries were reported following the Tunisia victory.

The Gyokeres-Isak partnership finished the opener without any physical issues and should lead the line again. Kristoffer Nordfeldt, the 36-year-old AIK goalkeeper, was Potter's pick as first-choice keeper for the tournament ahead of Jacob Widell Zetterstrom and Viktor Johansson.

Netherlands vs Sweden predicted XIs

Netherlands predicted XI (4-3-3): B Verbruggen; D Dumfries, J van Hecke, V van Dijk, M van de Ven; F de Jong, T Reijnders, R Gravenberch; C Summerville, D Malen, C Gakpo.

Sweden predicted XI (3-4-1-2): K Nordfeldt; V Lindelof, G Lagerbielke, I Hien; G Gudmundsson, Y Ayari, J Karlstrom, A Bernhardsson; B Nygren; V Gyokeres, A Isak.

Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Sweden

These two nations have met 20 times, with the balance tipping in favour of the Dutch: nine wins, four draws and seven defeats. The most recent encounter came in October 2017, a 2-0 Netherlands victory in Amsterdam during qualifying for the 2018 World Cup.

That win was not enough to send the Oranje to Russia. A month earlier, Sweden had secured a 1-1 draw in Stockholm, a result that allowed them to qualify on goal difference from the group.

At World Cup level, the two sides have met only once: a goalless draw in the 1974 group stage, hosted by the Netherlands. Saturday's match will be just their second meeting in World Cup history, 52 years on.

The Euro 2012 qualifying campaign produced two memorable encounters: a 4-1 Netherlands victory in Amsterdam in October 2010, followed by a 3-2 Swedish revenge in Stockholm a year later. Since that 2011 defeat, Netherlands have not lost to Sweden in a competitive fixture.

Our Netherlands vs Sweden prediction and tips