Netherlands vs Japan prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Netherlands open their World Cup 2026 campaign against Japan at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday 14 June, with kick-off scheduled for 9:00pm BST.

Ronald Koeman's eighth-ranked side meet a Samurai Blue outfit that has comfortably surpassed any Japan squad of recent generations for defensive solidity and depth, arriving in the United States on a five-match winning run without conceding a single goal in the build-up.

Netherlands vs Japan: preview and recent form

Netherlands topped their European qualifying section, Group G, with six wins and two draws from eight matches, scoring 27 goals and conceding just four.

The headline numbers were boosted by heavy wins over Malta, Finland and Lithuania, but two 1-1 draws against Poland exposed difficulties against well-organised opponents capable of hurting them on the counter.

Memphis Depay remains the focal point of the attack, with 55 goals in 109 caps making him the all-time top scorer in Dutch national team history.

The Corinthians forward provides experience and a physical presence in the box that Koeman values in a tournament of this magnitude.

Cody Gakpo is the principal threat from the flanks, with the Liverpool winger ending his Premier League season with seven goals and five assists and carrying that form into this opener after converting both penalties in the 2-1 friendly win over Uzbekistan.

The build-up has been uneven for the Oranje, who played out a 1-1 draw with Ecuador before suffering a 1-0 defeat to Algeria, courtesy of an 86th-minute strike from Anis Hadj Moussa.

The latter result raised genuine concerns about the Netherlands' ability to convert chances against well-drilled defences, and while the win over Uzbekistan provided a timely response, it did not fully dispel those concerns, with much of the team's attacking creativity still appearing stunted.

Japan, ranked 18th in the FIFA standings, were the first nation outside the three hosts to qualify for the 2026 tournament.

The Samurai Blue lost just one of their 16 matches in Asian qualifying, scoring 54 goals and conceding only three across the entire campaign.

A 1-0 win away to Scotland at Hampden Park was followed by another 1-0 victory against England at Wembley, sealed by a Kaoru Mitoma goal that demonstrated Japan's capacity to compete with and beat top European opposition.

Mitoma's absence is the dominant story for Japan, with the Brighton winger suffering a hamstring injury in the Premier League and ruled out of the squad entirely.

Takumi Minamino of Monaco has been sidelined since December with an anterior cruciate ligament rupture.

Even with those losses, the depth available to Hajime Moriyasu remains striking, with Takefusa Kubo of Real Sociedad, Junya Ito at Genk, Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace and Ritsu Doan at Eintracht Frankfurt all providing top-flight European pedigree across the attacking positions.

Five consecutive clean-sheet wins suggest a side reaching peak collective form at exactly the right moment.

Netherlands vs Japan team news and predicted XIs

Netherlands

The loss of Simons is the most damaging blow to Koeman's tactical setup.

The Tottenham midfielder was the player most adept at linking midfield with attack through vertical passes, and his absence forces Tijjani Reijnders to shoulder the bulk of creative responsibility from a more advanced station.

Arsenal defender Timber was forced to withdraw from the Netherlands' World Cup squad ahead of their final pre-tournament friendly against Uzbekistan after failing to recover from a groin injury in time, with Sunderland's Lutsharel Geertruida called up as his replacement.

Bart Verbruggen returned to full team training on Friday after a hip contusion suffered in the Uzbekistan match, confirming his availability for Sunday's opener.

The 4-2-3-1 established in qualifying is expected to remain in place, with Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch operating as the double pivot and Reijnders pushed higher.

Japan

Japan suffered a significant late blow on Thursday when captain Wataru Endo withdrew from the squad and announced his retirement from international football, having failed to recover from the foot injury that required surgery in February.

The 33-year-old Liverpool midfielder, who finishes his Japan career with over 70 caps and four goals, was initially named in the 26-man roster but lasted only half a half in the warm-up friendly against Iceland on 31 May before being replaced; Borussia Mönchengladbach forward Shuto Machino was called up in his place.

Moriyasu was visibly tearful when confirming Mitoma's exclusion, describing the news as a huge blow to the group.

The Brighton winger had scored the decisive goal in the Wembley win over England and was widely regarded as Japan's most likely match-winner with his acceleration and ability to commit defenders.

The combined absence of Mitoma and Minamino significantly reduces Japan's individual breakdown threat, but Moriyasu retains high-quality alternatives in Kubo and Ito for the advanced wide and inside roles.

Takehiro Tomiyasu has been absent from international duty since June 2024, but the Ajax defender has been recalled and is expected to feature in the back line.

Yuto Nagatomo, at 39, is preparing for his fifth consecutive World Cup as an option at left wing-back.

The 3-4-2-1 used in the recent friendlies should be reprised, with three central defenders and two creative midfielders supporting Ayase Ueda.

Netherlands vs Japan predicted XIs

Netherlands predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, van de Ven; de Jong, Gravenberch; Malen, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay.

Japan predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; H. Ito, Tomiyasu, Itakura; Doan, Kamada, Tanaka, Nakamura; J. Ito, Kubo; Ueda.

Netherlands vs Japan head to head

Netherlands and Japan have met three times, and the Dutch lead the head to head two wins to nil with one draw.

The first meeting was a friendly in Enschede in September 2009, a 3-0 victory for the Oranje.

The only previous World Cup meeting came at the 2010 tournament in South Africa, when Netherlands won 1-0 in a group-stage game at Durban thanks to a Wesley Sneijder strike.

The most recent encounter, in November 2013 at Genk, ended 2-2; Netherlands led 2-0 inside 38 minutes through Rafael van der Vaart (12) and Arjen Robben (38), but Japan replied through Yuya Osako (44) and Keisuke Honda (60) to draw level.

Almost 13 years have passed since that draw, and the Japan side reporting for duty in 2026 bears little resemblance to the one from 2013, with wins over Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, and over England and Brazil in 2025 and 2026, pointing to a fundamentally different proposition.

Netherlands vs Japan tips and prediction

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