France vs Spain prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

The world's number one and number three ranked nations meet at the Dallas Stadium on Tuesday (8pm BST) for a place in the World Cup final, as France, top of the FIFA rankings and boasting a perfect record through six matches with 16 goals scored, take on reigning European champions Spain, who have conceded just once throughout the tournament.

Didier Deschamps is managing his final competition with France, and his squad have responded with the most emphatic campaign of his 14 years in charge.

Kylian Mbappe jointly leads the tournament scoring charts with eight goals alongside Lionel Messi, and sits on 20 career World Cup goals, one short of the Argentine captain's all-time record of 21.

Spain, meanwhile, have eliminated Portugal and Belgium without ever looking vulnerable, and arrive with two consecutive knockout victories over France in recent years to draw upon.

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Match preview: France vs Spain

France boast the second-most potent attack at the 2026 World Cup, having scored 16 goals – one fewer than Argentina's tournament-leading tally of 17.

Ousmane Dembele, the 2025 Ballon d'Or winner, struck a hat-trick against Norway in the group stage and has five goals at the tournament, while Michael Olise has provided five assists, leaving him one short of Pele's all-time World Cup record from the 1970 finals.

The trio of Mbappe, Dembele and Olise have combined for 23 goal involvements, three more than Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho managed when Brazil lifted the trophy in 2002.

The knockout rounds have also highlighted a more controlled side to Didier Deschamps' team, who have recorded three consecutive clean sheets while beating Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32, Paraguay 1-0 in the last 16 courtesy of a Mbappe penalty and Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-finals.

France have shown they can shut games down as effectively as they can overwhelm opponents, with Deschamps deploying a 4-2-3-1 system featuring a double pivot in midfield.

Adrien Rabiot and Manu Kone have anchored the centre of the park in recent matches, allowing Olise to operate as the number 10 behind Mbappe, while Dembele and Bradley Barcola have provided the width on either flank.

Dembele and Mbappe have scored 13 goals between them at the tournament, matching the combined tally Ronaldo and Rivaldo produced during Brazil's triumphant 2002 World Cup campaign.

Spain have taken a different route to the semi-finals, building their success on defensive resilience rather than attacking firepower.

Goalkeeper Unai Simon set a new all-time World Cup record of 649 consecutive minutes without conceding, surpassing Nadine Angerer's previous mark of 622 minutes before Belgium finally ended his streak in the quarter-finals.

That strike from the Red Devils came after Spain had recorded five successive clean sheets at the tournament.

Mikel Oyarzabal is La Roja's leading scorer at the 2026 World Cup with four goals, including braces against Saudi Arabia in the group stage and Austria in the round of 32.

Mikel Merino has emerged as Spain's knockout-stage hero, scoring late winners against Portugal in the last 16 and Belgium in the quarter-finals.

Merino's decisive 88th-minute strike against Belgium came after Fabian Ruiz's opener had been cancelled out by Charles De Ketelaere.

Luis de la Fuente has consistently deployed a 4-2-3-1 system, with Rodri and Fabian Ruiz anchoring midfield behind Dani Olmo, while Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena provide the attacking width.

Three of Spain's five victories at this World Cup have been decided by a single-goal margin, with two of those winning goals arriving in the closing stages.

La Roja, ranked third in the FIFA World Rankings, are now unbeaten in 36 consecutive matches, one short of the all-time international record and a run that stretches back through their Euro 2024 triumph and 2025 UEFA Nations League success.

BoyleSports price France at around 2.35 for the 90-minute win, and our BoyleSports sportsbook review covers their full range of World Cup markets.

Expert view – Barney Corkhill, Sports Mole

“France have been hailed not just as the best team at this World Cup, but as one of the best teams to have graced any World Cup, and you probably have to go back to Brazil 2002 for an attacking lineup quite as star-studded and high quality.

“They come up against the best defence so far at this summer's tournament, though, and a team capable of starving them of possession. If anyone can beat France in this World Cup, I think Spain are the best equipped to do so, as they did in the semi-finals of the Euros two years ago and the Nations League last year.

“That said, when France are able to win the ball back, that fearsome frontline can break forward at real pace in transition and on the counter – that is likely to be the biggest danger for Spain to stifle in this game.

“From a neutral point of view, a repeat of that 5-4 Nations League epic would be great to see, but either way this is a heavyweight showdown fit for the occasion. A place in the World Cup final is at stake and only one of the two pre-tournament favourites can make it – I think France will ultimately prevail, but this may well be their toughest game of the whole tournament, including a potential final against England or Argentina.”

Team news and predicted XIs: France vs Spain

France

Aurelien Tchouameni is the only major fitness concern in the French camp.

The Real Madrid midfielder has not featured since sustaining a groin problem before the round of 16 against Paraguay, and he remained an unused substitute in the quarter-final victory over Morocco.

If Tchouameni is unavailable, Deschamps will retain the Rabiot-Kone partnership in the double pivot, a pairing that has functioned effectively in two knockout matches.

Marcus Thuram is a slight doubt but should be available from the bench, and the remainder of the squad is fully fit, with Mike Maignan in goal, Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez at full-back, and William Saliba alongside Dayot Upamecano in central defence.

Spain

Nico Williams was injured during the group stage but came off the bench in the quarter-final against Belgium, a positive sign regarding his fitness.

Whether De la Fuente will start him ahead of Alex Baena, who has occupied the left flank throughout the knockout rounds, remains to be seen.

Fabian Ruiz displaced Pedri in the starting lineup for the quarter-final and scored the opening goal against Belgium with a strike from outside the box.

The Paris Saint-Germain midfielder may have done enough to retain his place alongside Rodri, although Pedri offers a world-class alternative to come back into the side too.

Lamine Yamal, who returned from a hamstring injury sustained in April with Barcelona, completed the full 90 minutes against Belgium and appears ready to start.

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Predicted lineups: France vs Spain

Predicted France XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, T. Hernandez; Rabiot, Kone; Dembele, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe.

Predicted Spain XI (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, F. Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.

Head to head: France vs Spain

France and Spain have met 38 times across all competitions.

The overall record favours Spain, who have won 18 of those encounters compared to 13 for France, with seven draws.

The recent trend is particularly concerning for French supporters, as Spain have won both of the last two knockout meetings.

At Euro 2024, Spain came from behind to beat France 2-1 in the semi-final in Munich, producing a dominant second-half display.

In June 2025, the Nations League semi-final in Stuttgart produced one of the most remarkable results in recent memory as Spain ran out 5-4 winners.

Spain took a 4-0 and then 5-1 lead through Nico Williams, Merino, Yamal (penalty), Pedri and then Yamal again, before France launched a furious comeback with goals from Mbappe (penalty), Rayan Cherki, a Dani Vivian own goal and Randal Kolo Muani.

The only World Cup meeting between the two nations came in the 2006 round of 16, when France prevailed 3-1 through goals from Franck Ribery, Patrick Vieira and Zinedine Zidane.

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Our France vs Spain tips and prediction