Argentina vs Austria prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

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Both Argentina and Austria arrive in Arlington on three points after winning their Group J openers, but the nature of those wins tells a clear story: Lionel Messi scored a hat-trick as the reigning world champions dismantled Algeria 3-0, while Austria edged Jordan 3-1 in a performance that was tighter than the scoreline suggested.

The 18:00 BST kickoff on Monday, 22 June at AT&T Stadium effectively functions as the Group J decider, with a win for either side all but securing a last-32 place, and Argentina are overwhelming favourites – though Austria’s return to the World Cup after a 28-year absence has been anything but ceremonial, and a point would suit Rangnick’s side almost as well as three, given their head to head advantage over Jordan.

Preview: Argentina vs Austria

Argentina have won eight consecutive internationals, and their opening Group J display underlined the kind of performance level they are capable of in a tournament setting: Messi’s treble against Algeria in Kansas City was his first at a World Cup and drew him level with Miroslav Klose on 16 all-time World Cup goals, and La Albiceleste did not allow their opponents a single shot on target across the 90 minutes.

The defensive numbers throughout their last five matches support the view that this is not simply an attack-minded side: 15 goals scored, one conceded, four clean sheets – note that Argentina have also won 11 of their last 15 games to nil and conceded only ten goals in 18 Conmebol qualifiers.

Messi, now 38 and capped 200 times at international level, remains the point around which Argentina’s attack is organised, and his start at this tournament makes him the most dangerous player on the pitch by any measure.

The midfield trio of Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul has provided the structural platform from which Messi and the forward line operate, and Argentina’s ability to control games in the centre of the park has been as important as the goals at the attacking end.

Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez at centre back provide the foundation for Argentina’s defensive solidity, and they enter this match as the only side in the group to have held their opponents scoreless – a record that shapes the football betting landscape heavily in the world champions’ favour.

In fact, Argentina have conceded just once in their last eight matches, making Austria finding the back of the net here unlikely, and the market reflects that dominance with the world champions priced short to win the game outright – see our Betfred sportsbook review for current World Cup prices.

Austria are back at the World Cup for the first time since France 1998, ending a 28-year absence, and their 3-1 win over Jordan in their Group J opener was their first victory in this competition since 1990 – a result they will point to as evidence that this tournament appearance is not token.

However, that Jordan win was tighter in practice than the scoreline suggested: the score was 1-1 going into the final 15 minutes of the 90 before a late surge that saw Yazan Al Arab score an own goal and Marko Arnautovic – who was introduced at half-time – convert from the penalty spot in stoppage time.

David Alaba provides Austria with the kind of composure and reading of the game that few centre backs at this level can match, and at 33 he remains the experienced pillar around whom Rangnick builds his back four.

The 4-2-3-1 structure Rangnick typically deploys requires his wide players to press aggressively and his double pivot to sit deep when out of possession, but with Marcel Sabitzer as the creative engine in the attacking third, Austria do carry a genuine goal threat – he has scored the first goal in five of Das Team’s last ten matches.

Team news: Argentina vs Austria

Argentina

Gonzalo Montiel is out with a hamstring injury, leaving Nahuel Molina to start at right back – a position he has filled credibly in recent internationals.

Left back Nicolas Tagliafico did not feature in Argentina’s Group J opener against Algeria, and while he has reportedly recovered from his calf injury, he remains a doubt, and Facundo Medina occupies that position in the expected starting eleven.

Emiliano Martinez starts in goal, and Scaloni should continue with the Romero-Martinez centre back partnership at the heart of a defence looking for a fifth consecutive clean sheet.

Austria

Stefan Posch suffered a broken jaw in the win over Jordan but avoided the need for surgery, and while he could keep his place, his readiness for this fixture is uncertain.

Kevin Danso of Tottenham Hotspur is available as cover at centre back if Rangnick needs to reshuffle the defensive unit, and the squad has the depth to absorb Posch’s absence if required.

The striker question is the most significant selection call Rangnick faces: Sasa Kalajdzic started the Jordan opener but Marko Arnautovic was the game’s pivotal figure after coming on at half-time, and the veteran could earn a start from the off against Argentina.

Argentina vs Austria predicted XIs

Predicted XI – Argentina (4-3-3): E Martinez; F Medina, L Martinez, C Romero, N Molina; E Fernandez, A Mac Allister, R De Paul; N Gonzalez, J Alvarez, L Messi

Predicted XI – Austria (4-2-3-1): A Schlager; P Mwene, P Lienhart, D Alaba, K Laimer; X Schlager, N Seiwald; M Sabitzer, M Gregoritsch, R Schmid; M Arnautovic

Head-to-head: Argentina vs Austria

Argentina and Austria have met just three times on record, with every result spread across the three possible outcomes: one Argentina win, one draw, one Austria win.

All three clashes were friendlies, and with the most recent a 1-1 draw in Vienna in May 1990, Monday’s showdown will be the first time that the sides have locked horns in more than 36 years.

The earliest encounter between the teams was an unofficial international in June 1966 won 1-0 by Austria, though Argentina took revenge with a 5-1 victory in May 1980.

Heading into the upcoming match, both Argentina and Austria are unbeaten over their last five games, but considering the Messi factor and La Albiceleste’s impressive defensive record, it is difficult to see anything other than Scaloni’s team taking the lead in this head to head.

Our Argentina vs Austria prediction and tips