Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Uruguay face Cape Verde at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday night in their second Group H fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Marcelo Bielsa's side drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia on matchday one, with Maximiliano Araujo's 80th-minute equaliser rescuing a point after Abdulelah Al-Amri had put the Saudis ahead on 41 minutes, and La Celeste now need all three points to avoid depending on other results in the final round.

Cape Verde arrive with one of the stories of this tournament already written. The Blue Sharks held Spain to a goalless draw on their World Cup debut in Atlanta, with 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha producing seven saves to deny the European champions. The archipelago nation of just over 500,000 inhabitants now look to build on that performance against opponents who carry significantly more individual quality but have been far from convincing in recent months.

Preview: Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Uruguay's recent form makes for uncomfortable reading. In their last five matches, Bielsa's side have drawn four times and lost once, failing to win a single game since beating Uzbekistan 2-1 in October 2025.

The 5-1 defeat to the United States in November was the low point, a result that exposed defensive fragility under sustained pressure and raised questions about whether Bielsa's high-intensity approach can be maintained over 90 minutes at the highest level.

Against Saudi Arabia on matchday one, Uruguay controlled 60 per cent of possession in the opening 35 minutes without creating a clear chance. Al-Amri's goal at 41 minutes punished that wastefulness, and it took until the 80th minute for Maximiliano Araujo to equalise with a shot from the left that Mohammed Al-Owais could not keep out.

The midfield remains Uruguay's strongest department. Federico Valverde, captain and a versatile midfielder who plays for Real Madrid, finished the 2025/26 club season with nine goals and 13 assists across 49 appearances in all competitions. Manuel Ugarte of Manchester United provides the defensive shield, while Rodrigo Bentancur of Tottenham, who recovered from right hamstring surgery in January, offers passing range and composure in possession.

The concern is at the other end. Uruguay have scored just three goals across their last five matches. Bielsa is expected to persist with Federico Vinas as the lone striker in a 4-3-3 shape, with Maximiliano Araujo and Agustin Canobbio as wide forwards, though Darwin Nunez remains an option to start or to be introduced from the bench.

Cape Verde's performance against Spain will go down as one of the great World Cup debut stories. Vozinha, a 40-year-old goalkeeper who most recently played for Chaves in the Portuguese second division and is now a free agent, made seven saves, including four in the first half to deny efforts from Ferran Torres, Pedri and Aymeric Laporte.

The numbers behind the Spain result tell the full story of how Cape Verde operate. Spain had 23 shots and 74 per cent possession, yet Bubista's side completed just 14 passes in the opposition half, the lowest figure recorded by Opta in a single half of World Cup football since 1966. Cape Verde defend brilliantly but barely threaten at the other end.

In African qualifying, the Blue Sharks topped their group with 23 points from ten matches, finishing ahead of Cameroon, the continent's most experienced World Cup nation. They scored 16 goals across the campaign but conceded just 0.8 goals per match on average. Three of their seven qualifying victories ended 1-0.

The comparison widget underlines a striking paradox. Cape Verde, ranked 45 places lower, have better numbers than Uruguay in almost every offensive and defensive category over their last five games. Zero wins and three goals scored for La Celeste against three wins and nine goals for the Blue Sharks. The only column Uruguay lead is draws, with four, which rather sums up their inability to turn dominance into victories.

The question Bielsa must answer is how to break down a side that will sit in two compact banks of four and defend narrow passing lanes through the centre. Uruguay struggled to do exactly that against Saudi Arabia and against Mexico (0-0) before the tournament. Valverde's ability to arrive late from midfield and shoot from distance, combined with set-piece delivery from wide areas, may prove the most productive routes to goal.

Team news: Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Uruguay

Ronald Araujo, the Barcelona centre-back, is ruled out with a muscle injury sustained during pre-tournament training. His absence deprives Bielsa of an aggressive ball-playing defender who has won 27 caps for La Celeste.

Giorgian de Arrascaeta, the Flamengo playmaker with 60 caps and 13 international goals, is also unavailable. His absence reduces Uruguay's options from set pieces and in the final third, where his ability to play between the lines has been an asset throughout qualifying.

The most notable tactical call is likely to involve Darwin Nunez, Uruguay's all-time leading active scorer with 13 goals in 39 appearances. Bielsa is expected to start Federico Vinas as the lone striker and deploy Juan Manuel Sanabria, naturally a midfielder, at left-back in a 4-3-3 shape, though Nunez could yet feature from the start.

Fernando Muslera is set to continue in goal. The 39-year-old became the oldest player to represent Uruguay at a World Cup when he started against Saudi Arabia at 39 years and 364 days old, surpassing Diego Godin's previous record by more than three years.

Cape Verde

Cape Verde have no injury concerns and Bubista is expected to name the same starting eleven that frustrated Spain. Vozinha, who now has 91 caps for his country, is likely to continue between the posts behind a back four of Sidny Lopes Cabral, Diney, Pico and Steven Moreira.

Captain Ryan Mendes, at 36 the squad's most experienced player with 99 caps and 22 international goals, is set to operate from the right side of midfield. Dailon Livramento, who scored seven goals across 23 appearances for the national team, leads the line as the sole striker.

Kevin Pina of Krasnodar is expected to play as the defensive midfielder tasked with screening the back four. His positional discipline against Spain was central to Cape Verde's ability to deny the European champions any clean sight of goal through the middle of the pitch.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde predicted lineups

Predicted Uruguay XI (4-3-3): Muslera; Varela, Caceres, Olivera, Sanabria; Valverde, Ugarte, Bentancur; Canobbio, Vinas, M Araujo.

Predicted Cape Verde XI (4-1-4-1): Vozinha; S Lopes Cabral, Diney, Pico, S Moreira; Kevin Pina; Jovane Cabral, J Monteiro, L Duarte, Ryan Mendes; D Livramento.

Head-to-head: Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Uruguay and Cape Verde have never faced each other in any competition or friendly. Sunday's fixture at the Hard Rock Stadium will be the first meeting in the history of the two nations.

Without direct head-to-head data, the indirect evidence from Group H provides the most useful reference point. Cape Verde held Spain, the group's top seed, to a goalless draw, while Uruguay required an 80th-minute equaliser to salvage a 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia. The final matchday will pit Uruguay against Spain and Cape Verde against Saudi Arabia.

The 45-place gap in the FIFA rankings is significant, with Uruguay 18th and Cape Verde 63rd, but the tournament has already demonstrated that ranking differences carry less weight when a well-organised side with genuine collective belief faces an opponent short of confidence and rhythm.

Our Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction and tips