Senegal vs Iraq prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Senegal and Iraq meet at Toronto Stadium on Friday 26 June at 8pm BST, with both sides already eliminated from the top two in Group I after France and Norway secured the qualifying places.

However, there is still hope via the best third-placed teams route, with victory keeping either side's chances alive, though the Lions of Teranga, sitting on -3 goal difference, are far better placed than the Lions of Mesopotamia on -6.

Preview: Senegal vs Iraq

Senegal have not been as bad as their results in this group suggest: against France, they held firm for much of the match before a third goal deep into stoppage time sealed a 3-1 defeat in a contest that was far closer than the final score suggests.

The picture was even more frustrating on matchday two against Norway, with the Lions of Teranga seeing a late equaliser ruled out for offside, condemning them to a 3-2 defeat after appearing to have rescued a point.

Pape Thiaw's side have now gone four games without victory, including a 3-2 loss to the United States and a goalless draw against Saudi Arabia, both matches coming in their build-up to the ongoing World Cup.

The Lions of Teranga, who reached the round of 16 in the 2022 edition, are now on the verge of an early exit, though a convincing victory against Iraq could enhance their chances of qualifying as one of the best third-placed teams.

Senegal possess a genuine attacking threat in Ismaila Sarr, who scored both of his World Cup goals in the defeat to Norway last time out, with the Crystal Palace winger's pace and direct running capable of causing problems for any defence.

Sadio Mane brings 130 caps and 55 international goals to this match, which is almost certainly his last World Cup at 34 years old, and while the Al-Nassr attacker has not added to his tally in this tournament, his mere presence on the pitch shapes how defences organise around him.

Iraq's World Cup qualification for the 2026 tournament was a long journey which spanned 21 matches, including a 2-1 victory over Bolivia in the intercontinental play-off in Monterrey, where Aymen Hussein netted the decisive goal in the 53rd minute.

That success saw the Lions of Mesopotamia return to football's biggest competition for the first time in 40 years, following their maiden appearance in 1986, where they exited the group stage after losing all three matches.

The ongoing World Cup sees Iraq treading a similar path after suffering a 4-1 defeat to Norway in their opening game before losing 3-0 to France on matchday two, conceding a Kylian Mbappe brace either side of the interval before Ousmane Dembele completed the rout in the 66th minute.

Iraq have now lost each of their last three matches, including a 2-0 setback against Venezuela in their pre-tournament friendly, though a 1-1 draw against Spain prior to their current sequence of losses suggests Graham Arnold's side can still prove difficult against top teams.

It is worth noting that prior to their current losing streak, the Lions of Mesopotamia had lost just two of their 14 matches, during which period they conceded multiple goals just once in a 2-0 setback against Algeria, meaning taking something from Friday's encounter could hinge on a solid defensive display.

Zidane Iqbal is the most technically gifted player in the Iraq squad, but the 23-year-old is likely to find it harder against Senegal's press than he has in Asian qualifying.

Ali Al-Hamadi of Ipswich Town is set to lead the line should Aymen Hussein miss out, and losing their only scorer in this tournament would remove Iraq's main threat.

Team news: Senegal vs Iraq

Senegal

Edouard Mendy is confirmed out with a knee injury, meaning Mory Diaw, who plays for Le Havre and has six senior caps to his name, is expected to deputise in goal.

Head coach Thiaw is not expected to make wholesale changes elsewhere, so Pape Gueye and Idrissa Gueye retain their places as the double pivot in midfield.

The latter is the most experienced outfield player in this squad, and the 36-year-old Everton star with 133 caps and seven goals is expected to once again provide the defensive screen that allows Lamine Camara and the wide forwards to press higher up the pitch.

In defence, Kalidou Koulibaly brings 105 caps of experience at the back alongside Moussa Niakhate, with El Hadji Malick Diouf starting at left back and Krepin Diatta operating at the opposite flank.

Iraq

Hussein was substituted after just 26 minutes in the defeat to France, and the 30-year-old Al-Karma forward, who scored Iraq's only goal of the tournament against Norway on matchday one, is now a doubt for Friday's clash.

Without him, Arnold must rely on Al-Hamadi to lead the line; the Ipswich Town striker is capable of the unexpected but does not carry the same penalty-box presence as Hussein.

Amir Al-Ammari anchors the midfield as the deepest of the five central players Iraq field in their 4-1-4-1 shape, and the Cracovia man's primary job will be to prevent Senegal from finding the kind of through-ball combinations that have hurt the Iraqi defence in both of their World Cup matches.

Iqbal is the one Iraq player who could make a mark on the opposition, with his ability to receive under pressure and play quickly in tight areas giving Arnold's side a release valve when they are pinned back.

Merchas Doski at left back and Hussein Ali at right back have been sound positionally but vulnerable to direct runners, which is precisely what Sarr and Mane offer.

Senegal vs Iraq predicted line-ups

Predicted Senegal XI (4-2-3-1): M Diaw; E Diouf, M Niakhate, K Koulibaly, K Diatta; P Gueye, I Gueye; I Sarr, L Camara, S Mane; N Jackson

Predicted Iraq XI (4-1-4-1): A Basil; M Doski, A Hashem, Z Tahseen, H Ali; A Al-Ammari; I Bayesh, Z Ismael, Z Iqbal, A Qasem; A Al-Hamadi

Head-to-head: Senegal vs Iraq

There is no head-to-head record to draw on here. Senegal and Iraq have never met in a competitive fixture, making Friday's match a first official encounter between the two nations.

Iraq's 1986 World Cup campaign produced three defeats from three matches at the tournament in Mexico, against Paraguay, Belgium and hosts Mexico.

In terms of pedigree on the global stage, Senegal hold a clear advantage, having played at three World Cups – 2002, 2022, and now 2026 – while Iraq have appeared at only two, separated by a 40-year gap.

This is the first time they have appeared in the competition since that year, meaning they enter this final group game without any World Cup win in their history.

Senegal's best performance at a World Cup came in 2002, when a side featuring El Hadji Diouf, Khalilou Fadiga and Henri Camara reached the quarter-finals before being eliminated by Turkey.

Our Senegal vs Iraq prediction and tips

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