Paraguay vs Australia prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Second place in Group D is on the line when Paraguay and Australia meet at Levi's Stadium in the early hours of Friday morning, with the United States already through as group winners. Both sides are level on three points, but Australia's superior goal difference means a draw is enough for Tony Popovic's side to advance – meaning Gustavo Alfaro's Paraguay must win if they are to guarantee progression.

Paraguay, back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, are behind second-placed Australia on goal difference, and the Aussies have the luxury of knowing that a draw will cement their place in the round of 32. Those checking the World Cup betting sites will find a tight match market that accurately captures how evenly balanced the qualification picture is heading into this final group fixture.

Preview: Paraguay vs Australia

Paraguay head into this fixture with three wins and two defeats from their last five matches. Alfaro's side scored eight goals across those outings, and they have shown an ability to threaten in the final third.

They scored in every one of those five games, including in a resilient 1-0 victory over Turkey in their second group outing, and that victory helped heal some of the wounds that the United States had inflicted when they won 4-1 in their opening group clash.

The absence of Miguel Almiron through suspension – he was sent off just before the interval against Turkey – has severely weakened Paraguay. The 32-year-old Atlanta United attacker is the most experienced creative force in Alfaro's squad, with 78 international caps and 10 goals at senior level. His ability to arrive late into attacking areas and act as a link player to the front two makes him a unique asset for his national team, and it is difficult to imagine his void being filled adequately.

Julio Enciso will have to take on added responsibility in Almiron's absence, with the 22-year-old hoping to score his fifth international goal in what will likely be his 35th appearance. His directness and tenacity will be needed in Paraguay's front-two structure, while Antonio Sanabria's physical presence could help Enciso find more space around the box.

Alfaro is expected to set up in a 4-4-2, with Matias Galarza and Diego Gomez providing width in a midfield four. The central partnership of Andres Cubas and Damian Bobadilla will hopefully prevent Paraguay from facing too many dangerous transitions. The absence of Almiron may make the midfield four more solid, but they could struggle to create as many clear chances.

Australia have not been at their absolute best in recent matches given Popovic's side have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five contests; they scored eight goals and conceded five times in that period, while only keeping one clean sheet.

The Socceroos' 2-0 victory over Turkey in their opening group game was positive, with the defensive resolve of the backline refreshing, though their 2-0 defeat to the United States in their second group fixture was a sobering experience.

Centre-backs Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess and Alessandro Circati have started all two games at the World Cup, so expect the trio to feature once again. Souttar, who has 11 goals from 40 international caps, is one of the more physically commanding defenders at the tournament, and he may prove to be the difference maker should the Aussies make the right set-piece deliveries into Paraguay’s box.

Patrick Beach was named in goal against the US and Turkey ahead of captain Mathew Ryan, who has played 104 times for his country. Another appearance for Beach would be his fifth for Australia. Those assessing the options available among new UK betting sites for this fixture will find a range of markets around Australia's defensive performances so far at this tournament that hint at uncertainty regarding Beach’s continued selection.

Mohamed Toure is set to lead the forward line, with the centre-forward likely to receive support from Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe. The Norwich City striker has two goals from 12 senior appearances, and while he will need his fellow attackers to create chances for him, it will also be vital for Australia’s wing-backs to jump forward at the right times to create overloads.

Team news: Paraguay vs Australia

Paraguay

The headline news for Paraguay is the absence of Miguel Almiron, whose red card against Turkey could prove decisive. The 32-year-old made history by becoming the first player at the World Cup to be sent off for covering his mouth while speaking in an apparently aggressive manner towards an opponent..

There are some doubts about the fitness of Ramon Sosa, who has not been ruled out, but the winger is still struggling with an unspecified issue. There is an argument that it may be better to start him from the bench in order to prevent a potentially more serious injury from occurring.

Gustavo Caballero is another doubt, though the winger has reportedly rejoined training, so he has more chance of making an appearance in attack than Sosa.

Australia

Mathew Leckie is a significant doubt for Australia, with the wide star having suffered a muscle problem against the USA on June 19, and it may be safer to rest him against Paraguay despite the fact he has not yet been ruled out.

Leckie would likely have been an option out wide as an attacker, but he was disappointing in his start against the US, registering just one shot in his 61 minutes on the pitch.

As previously outlined, Connor Metcalfe is the most probable player for the right side, and he will hope to score his third international goal.

Paraguay vs Australia injuries and predicted XIs

Paraguay (4-4-2): O Gill; J Alonso, O Alderete, G Gomez, J Caceres; M Galarza, A Cubas, D Bobadilla, D Gomez; J Enciso, A Sanabria

Australia (5-4-1): P Beach; J Bos, C Burgess, A Circati, H Souttar, J Italiano; N Irankunda, A O'Neill, P Okon-Engstler, C Metcalfe; M Toure

Head-to-head: Paraguay vs Australia

Paraguay and Australia have met five times in total, all of which have been friendly encounters, and the Aussies have never lost. The Socceroos' record across those meetings stands at two wins and three draws, though it is hard to weigh the importance of those previous clashes against their upcoming World Cup meeting.

The June 2000 series between the two sides yielded a pair of 0-0 draws before Australia edged a 2-1 result, with a 1-1 draw in October 2006 adding to a pattern of tight, contained encounters.

The most recent meeting between these nations took place in October 2010 when Australia won 1-0 in a pre-tournament friendly, with both squads having changed substantially in the years since.

Both sides have beaten Turkey and lost to the United States at this tournament, and the only reason they are separated is because Australia’s loss to the US was less damaging. Paraguay were beaten 4-1 while Australia lost 2-0, though the Socceroos were arguably fortunate that they did not concede more in that match.

Our Paraguay vs Australia prediction and tips

SpreadEx price both teams to score at 2.20 for this group stage encounter – see our SpreadEx review for a full breakdown of their football markets.