Turkiye vs Paraguay prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

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Turkiye and Paraguay meet in the early hours of Saturday in a must-win Group D encounter at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, with both sides desperate to get their World Cup campaigns back on track after opening-day defeats.

The Crescent Stars fell 2-0 to Australia in Vancouver in their first World Cup appearance in 24 years, while Los Guaranies suffered a 4-1 hammering at the hands of co-host United States in Los Angeles, making this fixture a virtual knockout match for both nations.

Preview: Turkiye vs Paraguay

Turkiye arrived at this tournament as one of European football’s most exciting sides, having qualified through the play-offs with victories over Romania (1-0) and Kosovo (1-0 away) following a competitive group campaign alongside Spain.

The statistics from their defeat in Vancouver told a paradoxical story, with Vincenzo Montella’s team recording 72% possession and 30 shots compared to Australia’s nine, yet failing to find a way past goalkeeper Patrick Beach, who made eight saves.

Nestory Irankunda opened the scoring on 27 minutes before Connor Metcalfe doubled the lead on 75, leaving Turkiye with plenty of attacking data to take encouragement from but zero points to show for it.

Before that opening defeat, Turkiye had won four matches in succession, including a 4-0 demolition of North Macedonia and a 2-1 victory over Venezuela in their final warm-up fixtures.

Across their European qualifying group stage, Turkiye scored 17 goals in six matches at a rate approaching three per game, with Arda Guler providing four assists throughout the campaign.

Paraguay returned to the World Cup after a 16-year absence stretching back to South Africa 2010, where they reached the quarter-finals.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side built their qualifying campaign on defensive solidity, conceding just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL matches at a rate of 0.56 per game.

That foundation crumbled spectacularly in the opener against the United States, with Paraguay conceding four goals having never shipped three in any single qualifying fixture.

Three goals arrived before half-time, including a Damian Bobadilla own goal on seven minutes, exposing severe problems in defensive transition that Alfaro must address urgently.

Mauricio of Palmeiras pulled one back on 73 minutes against the hosts, showing that Paraguay retain some attacking threat, particularly through Julio Enciso and Miguel Almiron in transition.

Team news: Turkiye vs Paraguay

Turkiye

Turkiye received a significant boost ahead of this match, with Kenan Yildiz declared fully fit after entering the Australia defeat as a substitute while managing a pre-tournament muscle problem.

The Juventus forward trained at full intensity in the sessions since the opening defeat and is expected to start on the left flank against Paraguay.

Hakan Calhanoglu and Ferdi Kadioglu, who had also been carrying minor knocks heading into the tournament, came through the opener without issue and are projected to start.

Montella is expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that dominated possession against Australia, with Cakir in goal, Calhanoglu and Kokcu anchoring midfield, Guler pulling the strings and Akturkoglu leading the line.

Paraguay

Paraguay are without forward Gustavo Caballero, who misses a second consecutive match through a strain, and winger Ramon Sosa, who has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

The loss of Sosa is a critical blow to attacking depth, as he came off the bench against the United States, and his absence alongside Caballero leaves Alfaro short of wide options, potentially pushing Julio Enciso into a more withdrawn role or bringing Matias Galarza into contention for additional minutes.

Damian Bobadilla, who scored an own goal against the USA, is available after coming through the opener, while Fabian Balbuena is fully fit but expected to start on the bench as Alfaro rotates the defensive line.

The centre-back pairing of captain Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete is set to continue, with Alfaro expected to deploy a physical 4-4-2 that relies on Miguel Almiron for pace on the flank and Enciso as the most dangerous attacking threat alongside Antonio Sanabria.

Turkiye vs Paraguay injuries and predicted XIs

Predicted Turkiye XI (4-2-3-1): U Cakir; Z Celik, M Demiral, A Bardakci, F Kadioglu; O Kokcu, H Calhanoglu; B Yilmaz, A Guler, K Yildiz; K Akturkoglu.

Predicted Paraguay XI (4-4-2): O Gill; J Alonso, O Alderete, G Gomez, J Caceres; M Almiron, D Bobadilla, A Cubas, D Gomez; A Sanabria, J Enciso.

Head-to-head: Turkiye vs Paraguay

The two nations have met just once in the history of international football, an encounter that took place more than three decades ago on 18 June 1995 and finished goalless.

That friendly in 1995 is the only point of reference in the head-to-head record, meaning the two sides have never previously faced each other in a competitive fixture before this World Cup meeting.

With such limited historical precedent, current form and squad quality carry far greater weight than any head-to-head analysis in assessing how this match is likely to play out.

Our Turkiye vs Paraguay prediction and tips

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