Tunisia vs Japan prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

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Tunisia vs Japan kicks off at 05:00 BST on Sunday 21 June at Estadio Monterrey in Guadalupe, Mexico, with the Eagles of Carthage needing a result to keep their World Cup hopes alive after a 5-1 Group F opening defeat to Sweden and the subsequent dismissal of coach Sabri Lamouchi, replaced by Herve Renard in an unprecedented mid-tournament managerial change.

Japan arrive with genuine momentum following a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands that featured a late Daichi Kamada equaliser and underlined their capability against the best sides in Europe. Winning this fixture would put Hajime Moriyasu’s side in a commanding position ahead of their final group game against Sweden.

Preview: Tunisia vs Japan

Lamouchi’s dismissal after one match is without precedent in men’s World Cup history, and the circumstances of the Sweden defeat go beyond the scoreline. Tunisia set up with a back four against Belgium in their final pre-tournament fixture, where they were beaten 5-0, and shifted to a back five against Sweden – but costly individual errors and poor defending undid whatever defensive organisation Lamouchi had attempted to build, leaving Renard with a squad that is demoralised and structurally uncertain.

Renard is the most decorated international manager of his generation in African football, having won the Africa Cup of Nations with both Zambia in 2012 and Ivory Coast in 2015. His record at World Cups is more mixed: he guided Saudi Arabia to a famous victory over Argentina in 2022, but their group stage ended with five goals conceded across three games and an exit before the knockout rounds. The task here is arguably harder – reorganising an unfamiliar squad in days rather than months.

The captain Ellyes Skhiri remains Tunisia’s most important player in a holding sense. The Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder brings 84 caps of experience to this tournament and will be asked to anchor the midfield against a Japan side that pressed relentlessly in their comeback against the Dutch.

Hannibal Mejbri carries the creative burden with 46 caps at 23 years of age. His link-up play from an advanced midfield position is Tunisia’s most reliable outlet going forward, though the Burnley midfielder’s impact has been limited in recent competitive fixtures against quality opposition.

Tunisia’s attacking numbers tell a clear story: two goals scored in their last five matches, with Elias Saad – four goals from 16 caps – operating in relative isolation as the focal point of an attack starved of service.

Hajime Moriyasu’s side have built their pre-tournament form on a foundation of defensive discipline, conceding nothing in four successive matches before the Netherlands draw, and that clean-sheet habit will be the feature of Japan’s game that concerns Tunisia most.

Ueda is Japan’s focal point up front, carrying 16 goals in 40 international appearances into a fixture against a Tunisia defence that has conceded 11 times in five matches. The Feyenoord striker’s directness gives Japan a clear threat in behind against a back line that has shown consistent vulnerability to pace.

Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace – 13 goals in 50 caps – scored the dramatic 89th-minute equaliser to earn Japan a point against the Netherlands, while Ritsu Doan – 11 goals from 66 caps – and Nakamura – 11 goals in 26 caps – offer a consistent threat from wide positions. The squad has demonstrated the ability to find ways through even when matches become tight.

Junya Ito comes into the starting line-up after Kubo’s injury against the Netherlands. The Genk winger, who has 15 goals in 70 international appearances, scored the winner in Japan’s pre-tournament friendly against Scotland and brings direct running and an end product that will be a consistent threat down Tunisia’s right flank.

Japan’s system under Moriyasu proved adaptable against the Netherlands – absorbing pressure when necessary and exploiting space in transition – and that range of tactical options gives them significant advantages against a Tunisia side still working out what shape Renard intends to field.

Team news: Tunisia vs Japan

Tunisia

The headline from the Tunisia camp is the coaching change. Renard takes charge with minimal preparation time – a matter of days between appointment and kick-off – which makes wholesale tactical changes unlikely. The starting XI is expected to broadly resemble the one that began against Sweden, with adjustments made to address the individual errors that contributed to the 5-1 defeat.

Skhiri and Rani Khedira of Union Berlin are likely to continue as the double pivot in central midfield, charged with providing protection to whichever defensive shape Renard selects. Skhiri’s 84 caps of experience represent the most significant asset available in terms of steadying a squad still reeling from a turbulent opening week.

Ali Abdi and Yan Valery are natural attacking full-backs, but with Ito and Nakamura capable of running in behind any overlap, Renard is likely to keep both sitting deeper than they would naturally play. How well they hold their defensive positions will be a key test of his early influence on this squad.

Montassar Talbi and Omar Rekik – who have a combined 72 international caps – will carry the central defensive responsibility, with their partnership needing to be significantly more composed than it was against Sweden if Tunisia are to limit the damage.

Japan

Japan lost Wataru Endo before the tournament began when the Liverpool midfielder, who had sustained a Lisfranc ligament injury in February, was unable to prove his fitness and announced his international retirement alongside his withdrawal from the squad. Ko Itakura of Ajax took the captaincy but did not feature in the opening game against the Netherlands, with Ritsu Doan wearing the armband in his place.

Takefusa Kubo, who assisted Keito Nakamura’s equaliser against the Netherlands, has been ruled out of this fixture with an injury sustained in that match. Junya Ito comes into the side as his replacement.

Nakamura’s rise as a goal threat from midfield – 11 goals from 26 caps – was underlined by his equaliser against the Dutch, while Kamada’s 13 goals in 50 international appearances make him one of the most productive central midfielders in the World Cup.

The back three that started against the Netherlands – Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Shogo Taniguchi and Hiroki Ito – is likely to be retained, with Itakura expected to stay on the bench.

Tunisia vs Japan predicted XIs

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): A Dahmen; A Abdi, M Talbi, O Rekik, Y Valery; E Skhiri, R Khedira; A Ben Slimane, Hannibal, E Achouri; E Saad

Predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Z Suzuki; H Ito, S Taniguchi, T Watanabe; K Nakamura, D Kamada, K Sano, R Doan; J Ito, D Maeda; A Ueda

Head-to-head: Tunisia vs Japan

Japan have been dominant across six all-time meetings with Tunisia, winning five and losing only once – the 3-0 Tunisia victory at the 2022 Kirin Cup, which remains the only occasion Tunisia have beaten Japan in any competition.

The historical record carries a notable defensive dimension: Japan have kept clean sheets in five of the six meetings, conceding only in the Kirin Cup loss. Given Tunisia’s current attacking struggles and Japan’s recent form, that clean-sheet pattern is one of the strongest pieces of evidence available for the Top Tip.

The sides’ sole competitive meeting was the 2002 World Cup group stage, where Japan won 2-0 in Japan. The most recent encounter, October 2023’s Kirin Challenge Cup, also ended 2-0 to Japan.

Head-to-head records spanning nearly three decades carry limited predictive weight for a specific match, but in this case the pattern happens to be consistent with the current form evidence rather than contradicting it. It is not the basis for any tip in isolation, but it adds context to what the recent match data already suggests.

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Our Tunisia vs Japan prediction and tips