Sweden vs Tunisia prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

Sweden return to the World Cup after missing the 2022 tournament in Qatar and open Group F against Tunisia at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. Kick-off is at 03:00 BST on Monday 15 June.

The match brings together two sides whose recent form has moved in opposite directions. Sweden clawed their way through the European play-offs on the back of a dangerous attacking partnership, while Tunisia – who won nine and drew one of their 10 African qualifying matches, keeping 10 clean sheets throughout – arrive on the back of a 5-0 thrashing by Belgium in their final warm-up fixture.

Preview: Sweden vs Tunisia

Sweden's route to Mexico was far from smooth. They finished bottom of their UEFA qualifying group without a single win across six matches against Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia – a record that ended Jon Dahl Tomasson's time in charge.

The appointment of Graham Potter in October 2025 changed the picture entirely. Potter has deep roots in Swedish football, having spent seven years at Ostersunds FK and guided the club from the fourth tier to the Europa League group stage between 2011 and 2018.

The play-offs produced a very different Sweden. Viktor Gyokeres scored a hat-trick in the 3-1 win in Ukraine and then struck the decisive 88th-minute goal in a 3-2 home victory over Poland, securing their place at the tournament.

Potter's 3-4-1-2 is designed to make the most of the Gyokeres-Isak partnership, one of the most potent striking combinations in the tournament. Gyokeres finished 2025/26 with 21 goals in all competitions for Arsenal, who won the Premier League, while Alexander Isak brings experience from Liverpool despite losing around four months to a broken fibula during the season.

The warm-up programme exposed defensive vulnerabilities, however. A 3-1 defeat in Norway – with Isak's 76th-minute goal Sweden's only response – and a 2-2 draw with Greece in which they conceded in stoppage time suggest Potter's back three remains a work in progress before the tournament begins.

Tunisia's case rests on two very different bodies of evidence. Their African qualifying campaign was outstanding: nine wins and one draw from 10 matches, 22 goals scored, none conceded, and 10 clean sheets – a record no other African qualifier matched for this tournament.

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations told a less comfortable story. Tunisia went out in the round of 16 on penalties against Mali, who had played with 10 men since the 26th minute.

Sabri Lamouchi arrived as head coach in January 2026 following the dismissal of Sami Trabelsi, giving him only four friendly matches and no competitive fixture before the tournament – a narrow window in which to establish a working identity.

Those warm-up results have not offered much reassurance. Tunisia beat Haiti 1-0, drew 0-0 with Canada, lost 1-0 in Austria, and were beaten 5-0 by Belgium in Brussels, a game in which they managed one shot on target and finished with 10 men following a red card.

The squad's club landscape reflects a wider dispersal than Sweden's. Six players ply their trade in Turkey, Switzerland and Russia, four are based in the Tunisian league, and captain Ellyes Skhiri of Eintracht Frankfurt is the only member of the squad who competed in European club football in 2025/26.

Team news: Sweden vs Tunisia

Sweden

The most significant absentee is Dejan Kulusevski. The Tottenham midfielder suffered a right patellar injury against Crystal Palace in May 2025, did not play at all in 2025/26, and was not named in the squad.

Victor Lindelof's availability is the most pressing concern in the build-up to the game. Sweden's captain with 76 caps, Lindelof is the only member of the squad to have played at a World Cup – he appeared four times at the 2018 tournament – and a decision on his fitness will be made as late as possible.

Gabriel Gudmundsson, the Leeds United left-back with 24 caps, is also being monitored, along with Newcastle United's Anthony Elanga and Celtic's Benjamin Nygren, who would fill the number ten position in Potter's system.

Alexander Isak has trained normally with the group in recent weeks and is expected to be available after recovering fully from his broken fibula.

Tunisia

Tunisia have a single major fitness concern heading into the opener. Hannibal Mejbri, the Burnley midfielder with 45 caps, is carrying a knock that will be assessed in the hours before kick-off.

Should Mejbri miss out, Ismael Gharbi of Augsburg or Khalil Ayari of PSG are the options to cover the central playmaker role.

The squad's depth of top-level club experience is limited throughout. Skhiri, who featured regularly in Eintracht Frankfurt's European campaign in 2025/26, is the only player in the group who competed consistently at that level last season.

Sweden vs Tunisia – predicted XIs

Sweden predicted XI (3-4-1-2): Nordfeldt; Lagerbielke, Hien, Lindelof; Svensson, Karlstrom, Y Ayari, Gudmundsson; Nygren; Gyokeres, Isak.

Tunisia predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Chamakh; Valery, Talbi, Rekik, Abdi; Skhiri, Khedira; Achouri, Mejbri, Ben Slimane; Chaouat.

Head-to-head: Sweden vs Tunisia

The head-to-head record between these two nations is slender and historically distant. They have met four times in total, all in friendly fixtures, with no competitive encounter between them at any level.

Sweden hold the better record across those meetings, winning two of the four – 1-0 in 1992 and 1-0 in 1999. The sides drew 1-1 in 1976, and Tunisia earned their only win with a 1-0 victory in February 2003, which remains the last time the two nations have faced each other.

A pattern runs through all four meetings: every match was settled by a single goal, and three of the four finished 1-0. That offers some context for the character of these encounters, though with more than two decades between now and the last meeting, any direct predictive value is extremely limited.

Neither side has met the other in a competitive fixture, making Sunday night a first World Cup encounter between them. Group-stage dynamics and the quality of opposition are entirely new territory for both nations.

Our Sweden vs Tunisia prediction and tips