England vs Croatia prediction, tips and odds | World Cup 2026

England kick-start their 2026 World Cup campaign against Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Wednesday, with this opening Group L fixture giving head coach Thomas Tuchel his first genuine examination at a major tournament.

Croatia arrive in Dallas, Texas with a more complicated recent record than their World Cup pedigree suggests. However, Luka Modric at 40 years old remains capable of altering the course of any match in which he plays, and head coach Zlatko Dalic has consistently produced more than expected from his squads.

Preview: England vs Croatia

England's European qualifying campaign was as complete as any side produced across the continent: eight wins from eight, 22 goals scored and none conceded across eight group-stage games against Albania, Serbia, Latvia and Andorra.

Tuchel, the first German manager to take charge of England, built his squad around defensive solidity, using Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson as a double pivot that closed down the pathway to goalkeeper Jordan Pickford throughout qualifying.

Harry Kane arrives at his third World Cup at the peak of his powers after scoring a remarkable 61 goals in just 51 games for Bayern Munich across all competitions in the 2025-26 season, including 36 in the Bundesliga where he collected his third successive Golden Boot – his 79 international goals in 114 appearances make him England's all-time record scorer.

England's warm-up results carried mixed signals. The 1-1 draw with Uruguay and 1-0 defeat to Japan at Wembley in March exposed what sharper opposition can do when they deny England depth and tempo. Those results prompted harder work in the final two preparation matches, which England resolved comfortably – a 1-0 win over New Zealand through a Kane header, followed by a 3-0 victory over Costa Rica courtesy of goals from Declan Rice, Anthony Gordon and Ollie Watkins.

Bukayo Saka on the right and potentially Jude Bellingham behind Kane give England invention above the midfield line, and the squad is the deepest Tuchel has worked with since taking over. One of the outstanding questions is on the left, where Marcus Rashford – who spent last season on loan at Barcelona – starts ahead of new Catalan signing Anthony Gordon. If Rashford starts and does not deliver, Gordon is the natural replacement.

Runners-up at the 2018 World Cup and semi-finalists in 2022, Croatia secured their spot at this summer's World Cup after recording seven wins and one draw in qualifying – a goalless stalemate with the Czech Republic in October representing the only blot on their copybook.

Their warm-up fixtures told a different story, though. Croatia beat Colombia 2-1 in a March friendly shortly before losing 3-1 to Brazil in Orlando. Two June tests produced a 2-0 to Belgium followed by a narrow 2-1 win over Slovenia, secured only through late goals from Modric and Mario Pasalic.

Croatia have shown signs of defensive vulnerability in recent matches, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six fixtures and conceding 10 goals in the process. An England side that conceded zero goals in eight qualifying games could hardly have asked for a more encouraging run.

Mateo Kovacic alongside Modric carries the burden of Croatian midfield control, and at 32 and 40 respectively, they remain effective. The wider concern for Dalic is whether Ivan Perisic at 37 can still deliver the energy demands of a tournament opener against an England side that presses with genuine intensity from the front. Andrej Kramaric at 34 and Ante Budimir are the main goal threats, with Petar Sucic and Martin Baturina representing the next generation in the squad.

Team news: England vs Croatia

England

Newcastle United full-back Tino Livramento has been ruled out of the World Cup after sustaining a calf injury in training, with Chelsea defender Trevoh Chalobah called up by Tuchel as his replacement.

Rising star Nico O'Reilly, 21, is expected to start at left back for England – a selection that reflects Tuchel's confidence in the Manchester City youngster's positional intelligence and composure in possession.

Jude Bellingham's six goals in 48 caps does not fully reflect the influence he has carried in terms of tempo and line-breaking runs for England. Nevertheless, the Real Madrid midfielder could get the nod over Morgan Rogers to start in the number 10 position behind central striker Kane.

A late call is set to be made on the fitness of Bukayo Saka, who has been recovering from an Achilles issue. The Arsenal star has insisted that he is “ready to go” but Tuchel may opt for Noni Madueke to start ahead of him on the right flank.

Tuchel also has a big decision to make at centre-back, with Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa and John Stones all battling for a start at the heart of his defence.

Croatia

Duje Caleta-Car returned to full training last weekend after recovering from a back issue, and the centre-back should be available for selection on Wednesday. Dalic can therefore call upon his first-choice pairing in central defence, though 19-year-old Luka Vuskovic – on loan at Hamburg from Tottenham last season – remains in contention to start alongside Marin Pongracic.

Luka Modric recovered from a cheekbone fracture sustained in April and is expected to start, with his fitness managed carefully since the injury. Josko Gvardiol and Kovacic have recovered from their injuries suffered at Manchester City in time for the tournament and are expected to start in defence and midfield respectively against England.

The Croatian squad reflects a side in generational transition. Veterans Perisic, Kramaric and Modric bring tournament experience that no coaching manual can replicate. The challenge for Dalic is integrating younger players like Sucic and Vuskovic gradually, without dismantling what has taken the squad to three consecutive quarter-finals or beyond.

England vs Croatia – injuries and predicted XIs

England predicted XI (4-2-3-1): J Pickford; R James, J Stones, M Guehi, N O'Reilly; D Rice, E Anderson; B Saka, J Bellingham, M Rashford; H Kane

Croatia predicted XI (4-2-3-1): D Livakovic; J Stanisic, M Pongracic, L Vuskovic, J Gvardiol; M Kovacic, L Modric; M Pasalic, A Kramaric, I Perisic; A Budimir

Head-to-head: England vs Croatia

Across 11 meetings, England have won six, drawn two and lost three. The record is more balanced than the current ranking differential might imply.

The most consequential meeting came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Russia, when Croatia came from behind to defeat England 2-1 after extra time. Kieran Trippier opened the scoring with a superb free kick, but goals from Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic sent Croatia through to the final, the latter's winner arriving in the 109th minute of extra time.

Their most recent meeting took place at Wembley in the group stage at Euro 2020, with Raheem Sterling scoring the decisive goal in a slender 1-0 victory for the Three Lions. That remains the most recent context, but the squads involved in 2021 bear limited resemblance to those taking the field on Wednesday.

What is clear from the meetings across two World Cups and three European Championships is that Croatia have proved capable of defeating England when the match moves to extra time or when they can absorb pressure and counter late in a contest. Tuchel will therefore be keen to see his side make a fast start to Wednesday's match and maintain a strong performance level across the 90 minutes.

Our England vs Croatia prediction and tips