UEFA Champions League predictions: Can Real Madrid defy grim supercomputer findings against Arsenal?

An Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers and determined who is most likely to win the UEFA Champions League in the wake of the quarter-final first legs. Arsenal are currently 3-0 up against reigning champions Real Madrid, while Internazionale have a narrow 2-1 lead over Bayern Munich. Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, have beaten Borussia Dortmund and Aston Villa respectively.

Highlights: Villa comeback in vain as PSG progress to semis

Video credit: TNT Sports

Ahead of the UEFA Champions League quarter-final second legs, a supercomputer projected who is most likely to emerge victorious from the ties - and who will win the whole competition.

A dramatic set of quarter-final encounters saw Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain make their way to the last-four, while Arsenal and Internazionale have the upper hand after the first leg of their respective ties.

Barcelona demolished last year's finalists Borussia Dortmund 4-0 in the first leg, courtesy of a Robert Lewandowski brace and goals from Raphinha and Lamine Yamal.

Premier League

How to watch Forest v Arsenal on TNT Sports and discovery+

10/09/2025 at 16:42

Despite a Serhou Guirassy hat-trick in the reverse fixture at Signal Iduna Park giving Dortmund a glimmer of hope, the Catalan giants ultimately ran out as 5-3 winners on aggregate, to make their first Champions League semi-final since 2019.

PSG, meanwhile, weathered a late Aston Villa storm at Villa Park to win their tie 5-4 and make it to the last four of the competition.

Tonight, Arsenal take on Real Madrid, hoping to dispel any 'remontada' talk. The Gunners defeated 15-time winners and reigning champions Real Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium last Tuesday, as Declan Rice arrowed in two sensational free-kicks and Mikel Merino sealed the first-leg victory.

Finally, Inter have a 2-1 lead over Bayern Munich ahead of their second leg at the San Siro.

With all that in mind, Opta crunched the numbers to determine who is most likely to get to the semi-finals, the final and eventually win the competition.

Highlights: Rice magic as Arsenal stun Real Madrid on famous night

Video credit: TNT Sports

Who is most likely to make it to the Champions League semi-finals?

Ahead of the week's second legs, Opta had given Barcelona a 99.2% chance of making it to the Champions League semi-finals, while PSG were thought to have a 90.9% chance of getting past Villa in their second leg.

Both those predictions proved to be spot on, which should be heartening for any Arsenal fans.

While Real have a knack of doing the unthinkable in the Champions League, Gooners will be pleased to hear they have been given an 89.7% chance of winning the tie and making it to their first semi-final since 2009.

Inter have been given a 72.6% chance of making it to the semi-finals, while Bayern’s chances are at 27.4%.

Opta UCL Predictor after QF first legsImage credit: Getty Images

Who is most likely to make it to the Champions League final?

The first semi-final will see the winner of Arsenal and Real’s tie taking on PSG.

The other semi will have Barcelona facing Bayern or Inter.

With that in mind, and taking into consideration who Opta deems most likely to make it to the semi-final, Arsenal look set to face PSG, while Barcelona are on course to play Inter.

Barcelona 'don't have a weakness' – 'the front three are exquisite'

Video credit: TNT Sports

Barcelona are the favourites to make it to the Champions League final, with Opta rating their chances at 54.4%, while their likely semi-final opponents Inter have been given a 35.3% likelihood of making it to Allianz Arena.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have been given a 48.5% chance of making it to the final, as opposed to PSG, who have a 44.2% chance.

Elsewhere, Bayern are currently deemed to have a 10.2% chance of getting to the final, while Real are at 4.5%.

Who is most likely to win the Champions League?

Arsenal v Barcelona is currently most likely to be the Champions League final, with both sides having been given a 26.4% chance of winning the competition outright.

PSG have been given a 23.1% chance of winning the Champions League, while Inter are at 16.7%.

Bayern’s chances are at 4.2%, and Real’s are at 2.1%.

Watch the Premier League and Champions League live on TNT Sports and discovery+

UEFA Super Cup