The numbers behind Jannik Sinner's incredible run of success on hard courts as Wimbledon champion eyes Roger Federer feat beyond even Novak Djokovic
Updated 10/08/2025 at 12:33 GMT+1
Jannik Sinner's rivalry with Carlos Alcaraz is the pre-eminent story in men's tennis, but there is only one winner when it comes to the pair's recent record on hard courts. That is the Italian, who is in the midst of an astonishing period of dominance on the surface that he declares his favourite. As the US Open looms, we delve into the numbers behind Sinner's hard-court monopoly.
'We've done great things' - Alcaraz on battle for tennis supremacy with Sinner
Video credit: SNTV
Just how dominant is Jannik Sinner going to be at Grand Slam level?
We thought we had seen it all as Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal duked it out over a generation, but the Italian - together with Carlos Alcaraz - is putting all kinds of records under threat with the way he is hoovering up the game's major crowns.
And it has all been built from an astonishing dominance on hard courts.
Consider this as a starting point: since losing to Alexander Zverev at the US Open in September 2023, Sinner has won the next three hard-court majors - two Australian Open titles and the 2024 US Open - winning 21 matches in a row.
Indeed, since the start of last year's Cincinnati Masters - a tournament where Sinner is playing this week - the Italian holds a remarkable 37-1 record on hard courts, winning five titles in the process, as well as the Davis Cup with Italy.
With Sinner preparing for the defence of his US Open crown, he is within sight of a feat that even Djokovic has not achieved to date in his career - winning four hard-court slams in a row.
Federer was one of the 'Big 3' who did achieve that, capturing a ludicrous five consecutive hard-court majors between the 2005 US Open and the 2007 US Open - but Sinner would equal that if he wins next month in New York, and then in Melbourne in January.
There is another hard-court mark set by Federer that Sinner may yet be able to chase down.
The Swiss maestro still holds the record for the best-ever hard-court season in the Open Era, going 50-1 in 2005, a 98% win rate.
Sinner's 2024 was the third best hard-court campaign on record at 55-3 (94.8%), and his 2025 currently stands at 38-2 (95%) as his US swing begins.
The 23-year-old's hard-court supremacy is made clear when digging into his performance rating, as provided by TennisViz.
Five of the eight categories in the below radar chart are topped by his hard-court numbers, with his overall rating of 9 on the surface outperforming his clay and grass equivalents.
Why, then, is Sinner so good on hard courts?
Speaking back in April 2024, the Italian admitted to feeling "more comfortable" on the surface, before explaining: "I used to practise a lot on clay from 14 to 20, but after [that] most of the tournaments go to hard courts, so you play a little bit less."
That is borne out by his formative years on the ATP Tour, as this surface breakdown of his matches shows.
| Hard | Clay | Grass | |
| 2020 | 24 | 10 | 0 |
| 2021 | 53 | 16 | 2 |
| 2022 | 38 | 19 | 6 |
| 2023 | 57 | 11 | 11 |
| Total | 172 | 56 | 19 |
With such a big discrepancy between the number of matches played on hard versus the other surfaces, it's no surprise Sinner took to those courts with more comfort.
He currently has 20 ATP titles to his name, with 17 of them on hard - but with his growing ease on grass and clay shown by reaching both the French Open and Wimbledon finals this year, he could begin to expand his reach to trophies across all surfaces.
Can Alcaraz, or anyone else, do anything to stop him?
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