Six Nations permutations: What do England need to do to win? Can Scotland still win the title? Are France favourites?
Published 15/03/2025 at 10:20 GMT
Rugby fans have been treated to a thrilling Six Nations this year, and with one round of fixtures left to play, there are still four sides in the race for the trophy. England, France, Ireland and Scotland could all still be crowned champions come Saturday, with Les Bleus currently leading the way at the top of the table by one point. With that in mind, here are all of the possible permutations.
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The 2025 Six Nations will draw to a dramatic conclusion on Saturday.
England, France, Ireland and Scotland could all still get their hands on the trophy, while Italy and Wales will both be hoping to avoid finishing bottom.
The final fixtures see Italy host Ireland, before England's trip to the Principality Stadium for their match with Wales.
Later in the evening, France will face Scotland at home in the final game of the tournament.
Who will come out on top and be crowned champions? Here are all the possible permutations at the top of the Six Nations table.
France
Les Bleus are currently in pole position to win the Six Nations having established a one-point lead at the top of the table.
A bonus-point triumph over Scotland would be enough to guarantee the title at the Stade de France.
France's impressive points differential of +106 is well clear of England on +20, meaning a win without a bonus point is also likely to leave them top of the table.
| Team | Points | Point differential |
| France | 16 | +106 |
| England | 15 | +20 |
| Ireland | 14 | +13 |
| Scotland | 11 | +3 |
| Italy | 4 | -77 |
| Wales | 3 | -65 |
If England and Ireland fail to record bonus-point wins in their matches, Fabien Galthie's side could also lift the championship with a bonus-point draw.
France could even lose and still win the title, as long as England and Ireland lose without a bonus point and Scotland fail to take maximum points in Paris.
How Six Nations points scoring works
| Four points for a win, two for a draw, zero for a loss, plus bonus points for scoring four or more tries or losing by seven or fewer points |
England
England will need bitter rivals Scotland to do them a favour if they are going to claim their eighth title since 2000 on Saturday.
Steve Borthwick's side have the most favourable fixture on paper, though, against a Wales side sitting bottom of the table and looking to avoid the ignominy of the Wooden Spoon.
But Wales were improved last time out in a narrow defeat to Scotland, and the Principality Stadium will be loud and partisan for the visit of England.
The Red Roses will take the crown if they beat Wales and France lose against Gregor Townsend's side.
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If France and Ireland fail to add any points on Saturday, then England would also win the championship with a draw.
England could also finish top with a loss as long as they earn two bonus points and both France and Ireland fail to gain any points.
Ireland
Ireland are hoping to win a third title in a row, but they will need France and England to both fail to win to have a chance.
Ireland must beat Italy in the first game of the day and then wait and see how their rivals get on.
One unlikely scenario could also see them win the championship with a bonus-point defeat or a draw.
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That will only happen if England and France lose while taking massive hits to their respective points differences.
Scotland
Scotland need to thrash France in Paris while preventing their opponents from getting a bonus point to stand any chance of winning their first title of the Six Nations era.
However, even victory over France alone would not be enough for Scotland.
They would also need England to lose against Wales without getting any bonus points, and Ireland to lose to Italy.
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