Who will finish in Premier League top five and qualify for UEFA Champions League? What does the supercomputer say? What are the fixture run-ins?
Updated 01/05/2025 at 16:20 GMT+1
With four rounds of matches remaining, who will finish in the top five of the Premier League and qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League? Just five points separate third from seventh as the season nears its conclusion. We run through the key fixtures and form, and consult the Opta supercomputer to see who has the best chances to finish in the top five at the end of the season.
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Which Premier League teams will qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League?
With four rounds of the 2024/25 season remaining - bar Nottingham Forest taking on Brentford on Thursday night - it looks like a battle between five sides for three spots.
Newcastle currently sit in third spot on 62 points, one ahead of Manchester City, who are one ahead of Chelsea and Forest.
Aston Villa are not out of contention as they sit seventh, just three points behind Chelsea in fifth.
So who is going to finish in the top five and qualify for the 2025/26 Champions League?
We run through the key fixtures, look at the form, and consult the Opta supercomputer to see how things might pan out...
Who has the best fixtures and form?
Newcastle have soared up to third on the back of six wins in their last seven games, but can Eddie Howe’s side keep it going?
They travel to Brighton on Sunday before a key game against top-five rivals Chelsea on Sunday, May 11, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
Newcastle then travel to Arsenal, who might be assured of second place and could have their eyes on the Champions League final, before finishing at home to Everton.
| Newcastle remaining fixtures: Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H) |
Manchester City have also been on a strong run of form with four wins in the last five in the league.
They host Wolves on Friday evening before facing bottom-of-the-table Southampton. City play Crystal Palace in the FA Cup on Saturday, May 17, before finishing their Premier League season against Bournemouth and Fulham.
| Man City remaining fixtures: Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A) |
Chelsea have the most difficult-looking run-in of the top sides.
Enzo Maresca’s side host champions Liverpool on Sunday, May 4 following the first leg of their UEFA Conference League semi-final away at Djurgaardens on Thursday, May 1.
They then have the return leg against Djurgaardens before finishing against Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.
The Conference League final - should they get there - is on May 28, three days after the conclusion of the Premier League season.
| Chelsea remaining fixtures: Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A) |
Nottingham Forest have five games left, starting at home against Brentford on Thursday, May 1.
They then travel to Crystal Palace on Monday, May 5, before games against Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea.
| Nottingham Forest remaining fixtures: Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H) |
Aston Villa have ground to make up on those above them - do they have the fixtures to do it?
They next play Fulham and Bournemouth, before concluding against Tottenham and Manchester United, both of whom could be focused on the Europa League final by then.
| Aston Villa remaining fixtures: Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham (H), Man Utd (A) |
Guardiola: We need the fans
Manchester City will be tested this Friday as they face a Wolves side who have won their last six on the spin to pull clear of the relegation battle.
City needed a dramatic last-gasp winner from John Stones to beat Wolves earlier in the season - and manager Pep Guardiola has called for the fans to push the team to victory.
"Come to help us. We need them, because the fans want next season to play in the Champions League and be a better team than we have been in this competition this season," he said.
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"We have to try to be what we have done for many, many years in the last years. So we need them, desperately. Come to help us until the first minute until the end."
City could be boosted by the return of striker Erling Haaland soon, while Rodri has returned to full training after missing almost all of the season with an ACL injury.
Chelsea ‘in a good position’
Chelsea’s hopes of Champions League qualification took a hit with back-to-back draws against Brentford and Ipswich, but they bounced back with a late win over Fulham and then a hard-fought victory over Everton last weekend.
Will the Blues remain in the top five though as they juggle tricky fixtures and the Conference League?
"Sitting fourth now with that win [against Everton] is psychologically massive for Chelsea and puts them in a good position for the run-in," former Chelsea winger Joe Cole said to TNT Sports.
"When you see a group of players celebrating like that, you know it’s been a tough afternoon. Everton to their credit made it very, very difficult and had their chances at the end, but it’s a good win for Chelsea."
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Villa hit by Rashford injury
Aston Villa hopes of playing in the Champions League for a second successive season have been hit by an injury to Marcus Rashford.
Rashford has scored four goals in 17 appearances since joining Villa on loan from Manchester United in January.
However, he is expected to miss the rest of the season because of a hamstring injury.
Villa manager Unai Emery suggested Rashford would take "some weeks" to recover following the 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup semi-finals last weekend.
Opta predictor says...
Opta's predictor says Manchester City, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will finish in the top five.
Chelsea are predicted to finish sixth, ahead of Aston Villa in seventh.
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