Chelsea take over as new favourites from Paris Saint-Germain for Club World Cup ahead of quarter-finals as Blues prepare to face Palmeiras
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Updated 03/07/2025 at 08:46 GMT+1
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup knockout stage has already thrown up a number of twists and turns and after a night of shocks, that saw 2023 UEFA Champions League finalists Manchester City and Inter Milan knocked out, we have turned to the Opta supercomputer to find out how the predictions have changed. It's tremendous news for Premier League side Chelsea, who have received a big boost.
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The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup knockout stage is well and truly underway and the path to the final on July 13 laid out.
However, things are not going to plan, with some of the big European teams suffering upsets as the last-16 stage progresses.
On Tuesday night, 2023 UEFA Champions League winners Manchester City were knocked out by Al-Hilal while the team they beat in that final, Inter Milan, were beaten by Fluminense.
It has been clear throughout this tournament that some of the top teams from South America - and Al-Hilal - are more than a match for the big European giants, particularly in the intense conditions.
With that in mind, our friends at Opta have been looking at the data to see how the tournament could shape up across the rest of the knockout rounds. Â
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What is the last-16 line-up and potential quarter-finals/semi-finals?
Round of 16
- Palmeiras 1-0 Botafogo
- Benfica 1-4 Chelsea
- Paris Saint-Germain 4-0 Inter Miami
- Flamengo 2-4 Bayern Munich
- Inter Milan 0-2 Fluminense
- Manchester City 3-4 Al Hilal
- Real Madrid v Juventus
- Borussia Dortmund v Monterrey
Quarter-finals
- Palmeiras v Chelsea
- Fluminense v Al Hilal
- PSG v Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid/Juventus v Borussia Dortmund/Monterrey
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Updated Opta Club World Cup 2025 Bracket
Image credit: Opta
Who will win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Unsurprisingly, Paris Saint-Germain have been favourites for the tournament since the very beginning of the event.
The Champions League winners were the best team in Europe this season and have stayed as favourites throughout.
However, everything has now changed as we enter into the quarter-finals.
Despite losing 3-1 to Flamengo in the group stage, Chelsea appear to have benefitted. They will now avoid PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid until the final.
They have also seen the two big European teams on their side of the draw get knocked out. Will Chelsea suffer the same fate, or will they go on to win?
Let's take a look at what the Opta supercomputer is predicting.
Current predictions
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Opta Club World Cup Quarter-Final predictions
Image credit: Opta
Pre-knockouts predictions
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FIFA Club World Cup knockout stage predictions
Image credit: Opta
Pre-tournament predictions
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Pre-tournament Club World Cup predictions
Image credit: Opta
We have a major shift in the percentages not just from the beginning of the tournament, but even from just before the knockouts started.
Chelsea are the big winners. They started with the sixth-best odds but are now all the way up to first, practically just ahead of pre-tournament favourites PSG.
Of course, Man City and Inter have both been knocked out, whilst Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, third and fourth respectively, suffer from being in the same bracket as PSG.
It's interesting to note that the three other teams on Chelsea's side of the draw - Al Hilal, Palmeiras and Fluminense - have a combined percentage chance of 8.8%, considerably lower than the Blues. Clearly Opta feel as if Chelsea will not suffer the same fate as Man City or Inter and will go through to the final.
And there they will meet PSG, a team predicted to be in the final since the very beginning.
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