When will Erling Haaland break Alan Shearer's record after new Manchester City deal? How many goals will he end up with?
Published 17/01/2025 at 19:17 GMT
Having signed a new contract with Manchester City that will run until 2034, how many Premier League goals will Erling Haaland score? That is the big question on the minds of football fans after the surprise announcement on Friday. Also, will he break Alan Shearer's record? Never fear: Opta have been crunching the numbers and have worked out exactly when it will happen.
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Erling Haaland and Manchester City made waves on Friday when it was confirmed that the Norwegian superstar forward had signed a new contract..
The deal will run for nine-and-a-half years, until the summer of 2034. It is one the biggest contracts in professional football and ties Haaland's future to City for the vast majority of his career.
Of course, one of the questions that is now on the minds of football fans is: just how many goals will Haaland end up?
Haaland currently has an astonishing 79 goals in 87 games in the Premier League for City, and is just 24 years of age.
Not only do most fans expect Haaland to become just the fourth player to reach the 200 goal-mark, but many have him pegged to finally break Alan Shearer's long-standing record of 260.
In fact, the thought even crossed the mind of the man himself.
But could it happen? And will it happen? With no access to a time machine, we instead worked with our friends at Opta to try and figure out what will transpire in Haaland's career.
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Will Haaland break Shearer's Premier League record?
Yes, our friends at Opta believe that Haaland will break Shearer's record and go past the 260 figure.
When will Haaland break Shearer's Premier League record?
The prediction from Opta is that the record will be broken in 287 games.
Based on Haaland playing an average of 34 games a season, we should see him break the record a little under six seasons from now.
That means that towards the end of the 2030/31 season, we could be on the cusp of witnessing history as Haaland chases down Shearer's record. Get it in your diary!
Now, of course, so many things can change between now and then - the human race still being here being one of the pertinent variables - but it is fascinating to know that we have a great chance of finally seeing Shearer's record broken.
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How many Premier League goals will Haaland score?
So now the big one: how many goals will Haaland end up with?
Well, again, taking into account roughly 34 games a season and Haaland avoiding any significant injuries, Opta estimate that he will end up with a whopping 373 goals.
That would mean not only breaking Shearer's record, but obliterating it, setting a new benchmark by over 100 goals.
So would that new record be the highest figure across Europe's top five leagues?
Unsurprisingly, no, with former Barcelona superstar Lionel Messi retaining the record for La Liga. Messi scored 474 goals in his time in Spain.
But Haaland would slot into second, narrowly ahead of legendary German striker Gerd Muller, who scored 365 Bundesliga goals in his career.
It would also move the Premier League off the bottom of the 'big five' table, with Delio Onnis (299 goals in Ligue 1) and Silvio Piola (274 goals in Serie A) rounding off the list.
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