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Battle for Premier League top five: What are key games? Who will miss out on UEFA Champions League? What other European places are up for grabs?
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Updated 12/05/2025 at 16:51 GMT+1
The race to qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League is going to the wire with just two rounds of Premier League matches remaining and only six points between second-placed Arsenal and seventh-placed Nottingham Forest. Who is going to finish in the top five? Who has the best fixtures? Which other European competitions can teams qualify for and how?
Highlights: Newcastle take massive step towards Champions League with Chelsea win
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"We said that the [League Cup] final was our biggest game, but this was the next one," said Newcastle’s Dan Burn following The Magpies’ 2-0 win over Chelsea.
Victory sent Newcastle up to third on another big weekend in the hunt for UEFA Champions League places in the Premier League, while the beaten Blues were left precariously placed in fifth.
Enzo Maresca’s side are now level on points with sixth-placed Aston Villa, who secured a vital 1-0 win over Bournemouth 24 hours earlier, while Nottingham Forest are a point back in seventh after conceding a late equaliser against already-relegated Leicester.
With Liverpool long confirmed as champions, the four positions below them in the table remain up for grabs, and with just two matches remaining, it looks like it will go right down to the wire in terms of who will be playing in Europe’s premier competition next season.
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Premier League table as of 12 May
Image credit: Opta
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Who has the best remaining fixtures?
Arsenal
Having been looking up virtually all season in their attempts to chase down Liverpool, The Gunners are now potentially nervously looking over their shoulders.
Next, they face a match against Newcastle at the Emirates. A victory would confirm second place, barring a huge swing in goal difference on the final day when they travel to rock-bottom Southampton.
Mikel Arteta’s side could yet, theoretically, still drop out of the top five, but that would involve losing both games and everyone else winning all theirs.
May 18 - Newcastle (H)
May 25 - Southampton (A)
Newcastle
The Magpies leapfrog The Gunners with victory in London and confirm second place when they host Everton on the final day of the season.
With seven wins and one draw from their last nine in the league, Eddie Howe’s side will be confident heading into their final fixtures.
May 18 - Arsenal (A)
May 25 - Everton (H)
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‘It’s a black and white eruption!’ - Tonali puts Newcastle ahead against Chelsea inside two minutes
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Manchester City
After four wins in a row to catapult themselves back up the table, a shock draw at Southampton knocked City slightly off their stride.
With an FA Cup final to contest before their next league match, City could find themselves as low as sixth before they kick off at home against Bournemouth.
They then finish with a trip to Fulham.
May 20 - Bournemouth (H)
May 25 - Fulham (A)
Chelsea
Defeat at St James' Park could prove damaging with only goal difference keeping them ahead of Villa currently.
The Blues will hope to bounce back when they host a Manchester United side in dire league form and potentially distracted by a UEFA Europa League final before a huge trip to the City Ground against Forest which could decide both teams’ fates.
May 16 - Manchester United (H)
May 25 - Nottingham Forest (A)
Aston Villa
Unai Emery’s side appear to have put the double blow of exiting the Champions League and FA Cup in quick succession behind them with narrow wins over Fulham and Bournemouth.
Looking at the fixture list, hosting Tottenham and travelling to Manchester United would have once looked like difficult tests on paper, but the struggles of both sides as well as the distraction of their imminent Europa League final meeting could very well play directly into Villa’s hands.
May 16 - Tottenham (H)
May 25 - Manchester United (A)
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Highlights: Villa edge past Fulham to boost UCL bid
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Nottingham Forest
At one point, touted as potential shock title contenders, there is a strong chance that the Forest fairytale will not have the happy ending they crave.
Forest will be playing some form of European football next season, but there will be disappointment if it is not the Champions League, given they have been in position to qualify for it for so long.
Even victory at West Ham next and at home to Chelsea on the final day might only be enough for a Europa League place, depending on other results.
May 18 - West Ham (A)
May 25 - Chelsea (H)
Latest Opta prediction
According to Opta, the latest forecast ahead of the final two rounds of fixtures predicts that Arsenal, City, Newcastle and Chelsea will make the top five.
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Opta supercomputer prediction as of May 12
Image credit: Opta
Who can qualify for the European places?
Normally, the top four will qualify for the UEFA Champions League with fifth place taking a UEFA Europa League place.
The EFL Cup winners are awarded a UEFA Conference League place, while the FA Cup winners also go into the Europa League.
This season, however, the Premier League has been awarded a fifth place in the Champions League based on impressive displays in Europe recently, so now the top five qualify and sixth place goes into the Europa League.
With Newcastle winning the EFL Cup, their Conference League place will go to the seventh-placed team in the league should they finish in the top six.
Should Manchester City also win the FA Cup and finish in the top six, that Europa League place will also pass down the league, meaning the team finishing seventh will play in the competition and eighth place into the Conference League.
If Crystal Palace win the FA Cup, however, they will qualify for the Europa League.
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