Tour de France 2025 Stage 20 recap - Tadej Pogacar on brink of overall victory as Kaden Groves wins sodden penultimate stage from the breakaway

The 13 leaders now have two minutes to play with as they push on towards the next categorised climb, which is the hardest test today. France’s Jegat is the dangerman in GC terms but he will need to finish four minutes clear if he wants to rise above Ben O’Connor into the top 10, which is unlikely.

The Frenchman Clement Champoussin (XDS-Astana) loses his back wheel on the back of the main pack and he skids along the road, narrowly avoiding being run over by the pursing TV motorbike. Scary images. The Frenchman is a bit bashed up with a large graze across his thigh from that long slide across the tarmac. But it could have been so much worse.

Cofidis sends a rider to the front to lead the chase and that sparks a response from the yellow and white jerseys of Pogacar and Lipowitz, who clearly want things to settle. Cofidis and Uno-X both missed this move and instead of combining in the chase, they’ve been taking it in turns to attack, which is not a very efficient way of doing business.

Still, what’s left of the peloton is closing in on the two chasers. They currently trail the front of the race by 1’30".

There’s a gap between the leaders as the culmination of three weeks – plus today’s terrain and weather – take their toll. They still have 45 seconds on the chasing duo with the yellow jersey group 1’20" behind. It’s all still in the balance, especially with the tough climbs and rolling roads coming up.

The Italian from Astana just holds off Soudal’s Eenkhoorn in the intermediate sprint to pocket some prize money and token points in the green jersey standings. The break has 30 seconds on Van Moer and Watson, 50 seconds on the chasers and 10’40" on the green jersey group.

Mauro Schmid loses both wheels while leading the yellow jersey group around a sweeping corner on a slight descent. Amazingly, no one else goes down, with the riders behind him somehow avoiding the Swiss champion and his bike. He’s back on his feet but he’s quite bashed up after that fall.

The 13 riders – all from different teams – are: Tim Wellens (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike), Ewan Costiou (Arkea-B&B Hotels), Harry Sweeny (EF Education-EasyPost), Simone Velasco (Astana), Pascal Eenkhoorn (Soudal Quick-Step), Romain Gregoire (Groupama-FDJ), Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling), Ivan Romeo (Movistar), Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies), Frank van den Broek (Picnic PostNL), Jake Stewart (Israel Premier Tech) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceininck).

The rain has stopped and the sun is now pushing through the clouds – as if in celebration of these two leading groups coming together. For a moment, Tim Wellens was off the back – but the Belgian champion has returned to this break of a baker's dozen.

They have two riders in pursuit: Brent van Moer (Lotto) and Ben Watson (Ineos Grenadiers) while the yellow jersey group is 40 seconds behind.

Harry Sweeny (EF Education-EasyPost), Simone Velasco (Astana) and Pascal Eenkhoorn (Soudal Quick-Step) have joined the chase group. They trail the leaders by 12 seconds with the yellow jersey group another 20 seconds back. It’s still touch and go for all the riders out ahead – far from settled.

We have six or seven riders in pursuit of the three leaders. They are Romain Gregoire (Groupama-FDJ), Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling), Ivan Romeo (Movistar), Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies), Frank van den Broek (Picnic PostNL), Jake Stewart (Israel Premier Tech) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceininck). A few more could join them soon as they close in on the three leaders – Wellens, Jorgenson and Costiou.

The polka dot jersey – at least, the man wearing the garment – seems to be a bit isolated. He’s having to follow wheels and close gaps himself as he bids to not lose any ground on the man in yellow. This morning, the Dane did admit defeat in this Tour while praising Pogacar for his strength.

The Onley-Gall group has rejoined but another group of 30-odd riders has opened a gap, with Ivan Romeo now trying to bridge over to the leading trio with a few others. It’s pretty chaotic out there in the rain.

Wellens has gone clear with Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Ewan Costiou (Arkea-B&B Hotels) in a trio that has 12 seconds on the yellow jersey group. The Belgian national champion loves this kind of disgusting weather but they still don’t have much of a lead.

Tough Tim Wellens leads four other riders over the summit with a small gap on the chasers. They have a handful of seconds – and the climb continues over the summit here, so we could perhaps see the breakaway finally forming. The Onley-Gall group remains 20 seconds back, so they still have some work to do.

Axel Laurance (Ineos Grenadiers) and Pascal Eenkhoorn (Soudal Quick-Step) have been pretty active today. They open a small gap on the front but the duo is quickly reeled in. The Onley-Gall group are still 25 seconds back. The green jersey group are 5:30 down.

Pogacar, in yellow, and Vingegaard, in polka dots, are near the back of this main pack, which has been whittled down to about 50 riders. Florian Lipowitz, in white, is also there with them – just keeping out of trouble and marking each other’s moves.

It’s not just Onley who’s been distanced – Felix Gall, the rider in fifth, also lost touch on that wet descent. Decathlon lead the chase, but they have 35 seconds to close. It’s a really, really horrible day in the Jura – the rain is lashing down without any relent.

Rotten luck for the Belgian, who will have to chase back on when the pace is really high. That first group was brought back but there are still riders all over the road – and we’re hearing Oscar Onley is in a group 30-odd seconds behind. Not good news for the Scot, whose already slender chances of taking the white jersey and the final spot on the podium are evaporating…

The front of the race is onto the Cat.4 Cote de Valfin, which is 5.7km at 4.2%. There are numerous splits following that sketchy and sodden descent, with the front group only around 35-strong. Let’s see if things settle, or if they blow apart, on this next uphill test.

Meanwhile, here's Van Aert's interview from this morning:

The Italian has some company on this descent in the form of Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla). They only have a handful of seconds, mind.

CORRECTIONS CORNER: I did Astana a disservice in the previous comment when I questioned their results at this Tour. They, indeed, have four top 10s in stages so far: Simone Velasco was ninth in Stage 2 to Boulogne-sur-Mer; Harold Tejada was seventh in Stage 6 to Vire Normandie; and Ballerini fifth in Stage 17 to Valence, where Yevgeniy Fedorov – who withdrew this morning, incidentally – also came eighth.

The Italian Davide Ballerini of Astana has opened up a gap on the wet descent, throwing caution to the wind in a bid to get up the road and force the break to form behind. There’s a slight split on the front of the pack behind with around a dozen riders clear in pursuit of the Italian, but Tim Wellens is doing his best to close the gap and drag the rest of the pack back into contention.

XDS-Astana are one of the 14 teams without a win in this year's race. Heck, looking at their roster, they may not even have a top 10 at all so far...

It’s Frenchman Louis Barre (Intermarche-Wanty) who steals a march over the pack to pocket the 2pts over the top, with Ivan Romeo (Movistar) in second place. That means no one can now catch Pogacar in the KOM standings, so he will win his third polka dot jersey in Paris tomorrow along with the yellow jersey.

Before the summit, it was the usual suspects pushing on the front – the likes of Michael Storer, Marc Hirschi and Luke Plapp all doing their best to get a gap and force a break.