Why defending the Davis Cup will be far harder than winning it for Andy Murray and Great Britain

Birmingham's Barclaycard Arena plays the host for one of the more memorable homecoming parties in British tennis history this weekend, as the victorious Davis Cup winning team host Japan in the first defence of the crown they famously won at the end of 2015.

World No. 2 Andy Murray will once again lead captain Leon Smith's side, a relief considering how vital the Scotsman was to Britain's victory last time around. Murray admits he has hardly touched a racket in the five weeks since the end of the Australian Open (and the birth of his first child), but will still be expected to deliver at least two of the three points needed to ensure a raucous Midlands crowd does not end up witnessing a disappointing defeat.

Considering Britain's victory last year was the first time they have won the storied old competition in 79 years, it seems either foolish or deeply unfair to expect the team to go on and win it again just 12 months later. But since Murray was born four countries have successfully defended their Davis Cup crowns, while a further seven have reached back-to-back finals. It has been done before.

It is far from an impossible task, then, but for myriad reasons it looks set to be an even harder competition for Great Britain this time around.

First round: beat United States 3-2Quarter-finals: beat France 3-1Semi-finals: beat Australia 3-2Final: beat Belgium 3-1A. Murray's record (inc. doubles): 11 matches, 11 winsA. Murray’s most notable singles opponents: John Isner, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Bernard Tomic, David Goffin.

Japan's Kei Nishikori, the current world No. 6, is higher ranked than any of Murray’s singles opponents from last year (Gilles Simon was No. 11 when they faced off).

Just as Andy Murray was absolutely vital to Britain’s surprise Davis Cup victory, so it is completely reasonable to suggest that any viable defence of the crown would be utterly dependent on his participation.

Indeed, his involvement has not always been guaranteed, and not just because his wife gave birth to their first child a matter of weeks ago. The Davis Cup has a recent history of spotty participation among the truly elite players, and even amidst the rip-roaring run to the final last year many assumed Murray would quickly back away from the competition once he had finally, remarkably, added it to his list of achievements.

That is what the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have done in recent years – so it was a nice surprise for everyone when Murray committed to the Japan meeting – and, provisionally at least, the whole competition.

"That's the plan, but it's hypothetical just now," Murray said. “I've always enjoyed representing my country. Statistically I've played by far my best tennis when I've played for Great Britain."

That may change once the ATP season gets into full swing - the quarter-finals take place in the middle of Wimbledon and the Olympics - but for now that is cause for encouragement. With Murray in the squad he is almost guaranteed to deliver two points against all but a handful of countries – while his ability to slot into the doubles alongside his brother means GB have a shot at the three points they need in any tie.

That was a recipe for success last year, so there is no reason why it could not similarly productive this time around too.

Beyond their main man, the rest of the British squad is looking in decent shape. Kyle Edmund, Dan Evans and James Ward are all a year more experienced, more confident and more comfortable in the cauldron atmosphere of international tennis (and all seem to feed on the energy of a home crowd, which they are set to receive en-route to the final), while Jamie Murray is a Grand Slam-winning doubles player who is a threat whether partnered with his brother or Dominic Inglot.

Then there is the potential addition of 26-year-old Aljaz Bedene, who hopes to be given the all-clear to represent his adopted nation later this month. The current world No. 52, Bedene would not exactly give Britain a second singles player to be feared – but he would nevertheless offer a lift in talent level over the current options, someone else regularly mixing it with the best on the ATP Tour.

“If Aljaz is successful with his [eligibility] appeal then we have another Tour player for a considerable period,” as Smith told The Telegraph recently.

Looking to crash the party are Japan, who beat Colombia at the end of last year to return to the World Group. They have their very own talisman in Kei Nishikori, the current world No. 6 who has won 16 and lost just two of his Davis Cup singles matches to date.

One of the most erratic and unpredictable players on tour, Nishikori is one of the few with the talent to fully stretch Murray (although the Scot does have a 5-1 head-to-head advantage). That will be a key contest – with Nishikori, a former US Open finalist, likely to have more than enough to beat Dan Evans on the hard courts (even though Evans actually beat him at Flushing Meadows back in 2013).

Japan’s second singles player is Taro Daniel. Born in New York and living in Spain, the 23-year-old world No. 87 is a player on an upward curve, but one lacking experience in this area. At 6’3” he is a powerful player, however, and on paper should easily have the game to overwhelm Evans and deliver a point for his side.

Who knows how he will be affected by the partisan atmosphere, however – given he has won just one of his four singles matches in this competition to date, Smith will surely be spying an opportunity for Evans (or Kyle Edmund, if he overcomes injury in time) to steal victory in an anchor match that could yet carry decisive pressure.

If Evans cannot overcome Daniel, then it becomes imperative that Murray does not slip up against Nishikori. That will split the singles rubbers, leaving the doubles on Saturday to effectively decide the tie.

Given the other Murray’s ability in that format (he is also ranked No. 2 in the world), and his previous success with Inglot, Britain will not be devastated if that ends up being the case.

"Japan are a bit similar to our team,'' as Jamie said. ''They have a world-class singles player who's right at the top of the game, and then other guys who are like our guys, [ranked higher] in the world.

''From that point of view, we're pretty evenly matched. We probably have an advantage over the doubles team, but in Davis Cup that doesn't guarantee you points.''

FridayAndy Murray v Taro DanielDan Evans v Kei Nishikori

Saturday doublesDominic Inglot & Jamie Murray v Yoshihito Nishioka & Yasutaka Uchiyama

SundayAndy Murray v Kei NishikoriDan Evans v Taro Daniel

Britain have motivation not to quietly give up their title, at least, given that the loser of a first round tie goes into a relegation play-off later in the year. That could see Britain face Spain on the clay courts of Seville, for example, with the loser slipping into Group I for the 2017 competition.

Given Murray’s heroics in delivering Davis Cup victory were not isolated to 2015 alone, and were actually a multi-year struggle to get Britain back up into the World Group in the first place, sliding down the pyramid is clearly something everyone will be desperate to avoid.

“If we lose this [against Japan] we’ll play a relegation match in September. How is that going to feel?” Smith has said. “At the same time we don’t want to be looking at the nice trophy we’ve got thinking – 'Yeah, we did it.’ We want to do it again.”

If Britain do get through this opening tie, then they could well face Serbia in the quarter-finals – with the 2010 champions meeting Kazakhstan this weekend. That would mean another showdown between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, a potentially brutal confrontation that everyone would want to watch.

Serbia’s chances would appear to be good, considering world No. 1 Djokovic has overcome an eye problem to play against Kazakhstan and Viktor Troicki, current world No. 23, is another experienced Davis Cup competitor.

"We must first overcome this obstacle," Djokovic insisted, when asked about potentially facing Britain. "The most important thing is to be prepared, start the match with high intensity and use the crowd support, which can be crucial."

Britain would have home advantage should they win, giving them a small edge going into the meeting. But Serbia undoubtedly would bring a stronger squad, with the tie likely to reside heavily on the Djokovic-Murray rubber that everyone will want to watch.

The quarter-finals are currently scheduled to take place from July 15-17, the week following Wimbledon. That could add an extra spice to events; Murray and Djokovic could meet again just days after contesting another final at the All England Club. Wouldn’t that be something?

While it would seem distinctly unwise to look beyond that particular showdown, if Britain were to win in the quarters they could feasibly face Switzerland (Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka) in the semi-finals. Win that (again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves with that one) and a rematch of a 2015 tie looks possible in the final – with the USA, France, Australia and Belgium all on the other half of the draw.

Indeed, the 2016 Davis Cup World Group bracket looks distinctly lopsided – the equivalent of a grand slam tournament with Murray, Federer and Djokovic all in the same half of the draw. And how well would Murray fare if that was the case?

Winning the Davis Cup was undoubtedly hard enough but, as the team returns to home soil to bask in the glow of that success, it already looks like defending their crown will be an even tougher proposition.