How Francesco Bagnaia can win MotoGP World Championship title in Valencia – and how Jorge Martin can stop him

The race for the MotoGP World Championship is nearing its conclusion heading into the Valencia Grand Prix, with Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin in contention to win the title.

Reigning world champion Bagnaia currently leads the standings with 437 points, but has Martin breathing down his neck on 416.

Neither rider came out on top the weekend just gone in Qatar as another Ducati rider, Fabio Di Giannantonio, stunned Bagnaia in the final stages to take the first win of his career.

But Bagnaia's strong performances in Qatar saw him increase his lead at the top of the standings.

Meanwhile, there are also prizes for the Teams' Championship, Best Independent Team, and Rookie of the Year on offer.

The Valencia MotoGP Grand Prix will be shown live on TNT Sports and discovery+, and here is the current state of play heading into the final weekend if racing action.

Bagnaia starts the final race weekend of the season with a 21-point lead over Martin. The most amount of points Martin can get over the weekend is 37 should he win both the sprint and the race.

That means that Bagnaia can theoretically win the championship in the sprint. If Martin finished 10th or lower (i.e. out of the points) Bagnaia will need to finish fifth or higher.

Bagnaia effectively needs to finish with a gap of five points of more between himself and Martin in the sprint. If he does that the gap will be 26 points or higher which means that even if Martin wins the race and gets the full 25 points (and Bagnaia fails to finish or start) he will be unable to make up the gap.

After a difficult race in Qatar things are looking tough for Martin. He really needs to finish in the top two of the sprint to take it to the final race. Finishing second or higher is the only way he can guarantee doing that regardless of Bagnaia's result.

He will also need to hope that Bagnaia has a tough race that means by finishing on the podium on Sunday he can pounce and perhaps sneak in to take the title.

With Ducati long having wrapped up the Constructors' title the focus is on the Teams' Championship.

Prima Pramac Racing are in pole position to take the title and they currently have a healthy 89-point lead over Ducati, while Mooney VR46 Racing Teams are 100 points back of the leaders.

Prima Pramac Racing are in prime position to win this prize too, with the same criteria applying here, as they simply need to end the weekend ahead of Mooney VR46 Racing Team.

This is effectively a foregone conclusion, given that Augusto Fernandez (GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3) is the only full-time rookie on the entry list.

With that in mind, it is fair to say that this category is lacking in drama, given Fernandez officially took the title after the sprint race in Qatar.

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