World Cup 2026 third-place table: How many points to qualify and who could be in danger of missing the last 32?
Updated 23/06/2026 at 10:47 GMT+1
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The second round of group-stage matches at the 2026 World Cup is almost complete and thoughts are turning to who might progress to the last 32 - and how. The top two teams from each of the 12 World Cup groups will qualify for the next round automatically, and they will be joined by eight third-placed teams.
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Among the nations who could be hoping to qualify in third place from their group are Scotland, Belgium, Sweden, and Senegal.
Portugal also sit third in Group K after misfiring in their opening match at the tournament.
But how many points will be needed for a third-place team to qualify? And what are the tie-breakers if teams finish level on points?
How many points will third-place teams need to qualify?
The World Cup is treading new ground this summer with 48 teams featuring for the first time, which means there is no historical data to compare against.
But the table of the third-placed teams is starting to take shape, and it gives us an idea of what total might be good enough to qualify for the last 32.
Here’s how the 12 current third-place teams stack up before Portugal face Uzbekistan in the first game on June 23:
| Team | Games played | Points | GD |
| 1. Sweden | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2. Scotland | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 3. Algeria | 2 | 3 | -2 |
| 4. Paraguay | 2 | 3 | -2 |
| 5. Cabo Verde | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 6. Belgium | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 7. Portugal | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 8. Czechia | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 9. Ecuador | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 10. Bosnia | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| 11. Panama | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 12. Senegal | 2 | 0 | -3 |
Sweden, Scotland, Algeria and Paraguay are the only nations with three points, and they have also all played two matches.
Cabo Verde have been one of the surprise packages at the World Cup and, according to Opta, they have a 69.79% chance of progressing to the last 32 following their draw with Uruguay.
Portugal will be hopeful of moving out of third place in their group as they face Uzbekistan in their second match, having drawn their opener against DR Congo.
Belgium could be in danger of failing to qualify after drawing their opening two matches. They face New Zealand in their final game in Group G.
Czechia, Ecuador and Bosnia & Herzegovina look to be in trouble, having all picked up just one point from two games played.
Given the current third-place standings, four points will almost certainly be enough to advance to the last 32.
Opta’s supercomputer predicted after the first round of matches that teams have a 99.81% chance of making the last 32 if they end up third in their group on four points.
For teams who finish on three points, that dropped to a 66.77% chance of qualifying, and just 4.66% for teams who only get two points.
Scotland play their final group game against Brazil on Wednesday, June 24. Brazil and Morocco currently top Group C on four points each.
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What if third-placed teams finish level on points?
If third-placed teams finish on the same number of points then the tie-breakers are as follows:
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Team conduct score (the amount of yellow and red cards received)
- FIFA world ranking
According to Opta's predictions, three points and a positive goal difference should be enough to qualify for the last 32.
Even 0 or -1 goal difference was good enough most of the time in Opta's simulations.
Who will the third-placed teams face in last 32?
According to FIFA’s official tournament regulations, eight of the 12 group winners will be paired with a third-place team in the round of 32.
These will be the winners of groups A, C, D, E, G, I, K and L.
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England are in Group L so will face a third-place team if they win the group. They face Ghana in their second match on Tuesday, June 23, having won their opener 4-2 against Croatia.
There are 495 different possible combinations for the eight best‑ranked third‑placed teams and their opponent in the last 32.
Round of 32 fixtures (And possible third-place teams' opponents)
- Runner-up Group A vs Runner-up Group B
- Winner Group E vs Best 3rd place Group A/B/C/D/F
- Winner Group F vs Runner-up Group C
- Winner Group C vs Runner-up Group F
- Winner Group I vs Best 3rd place Group C/D/F/G/H
- Runner-up Group E vs Runner-up Group I
- Winner Group A vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I
- Winner Group L vs Best 3rd place Group E/H/I/J/K
- Winner Group D vs Best 3rd place Group B/E/F/I/J
- Winner Group G vs Best 3rd place Group A/E/H/I/J
- Runner-up Group K vs Runner-up Group L
- Winner Group H vs Runner-up Group J
- Winner Group B vs Best 3rd place Group E/F/G/I/J
- Winner Group J vs Runner-up Group H
- Winner Group K vs Best 3rd place Group D/E/I/J/L
- Runner-up Group D vs Runner-up Group G
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