Opta Supercomputer predicts 2026 FIFA World Cup final - will Lionel Messi's Argentina defend their crown? Or will Spain win first title in 16 years?

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For the last time at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the Opta supercomputer has made its prediction for Sunday's final, as Spain aim to wrestle the iconic trophy from defending champions Argentina in New Jersey.

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Image credit: Getty Images

Following their late heroics against England, Lionel Messi and Argentina will once again compete for the ultimate prize after winning it in Qatar four years ago.

The Three Lions went ahead in their semi-final in Atlanta thanks to Anthony Gordon's opener, but as Argentina's hopes faded away, Messi turned up the heat and provided two assists, in the 85th and 92nd minutes, to ensure their remarkable World Cup run continued.

They will face Spain, who, in the other semi-final, denied France a third successive final and the chance to reclaim the crown they lost to Argentina in 2022.

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Despite being the underdogs for the game, Spain stunned the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele to win 2-0 in Dallas thanks to goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro.

Spain have not featured in the final since they last won the tournament in 2010, which was also their first and only men's World Cup final.

Since then, the farthest they have managed to go is the round of 16, but the European champions are in a rich vein of form under Luis de la Fuente and have been backed by the supercomputer to go all the way.

Spain tipped to beat Argentina

Messi, 39, is most likely playing in his last World Cup. What better way to go out than playing your last game in a World Cup final and winning it to defend your status as world champions?

Well, the supercomputer has other ideas, because it has backed Spain to clinch their fifth major honour since 2008.

Opta supercomputer for 2026 World Cup final
Image credit: Getty Images

Opta have given Spain a 59% chance of lifting the trophy in New Jersey on Sunday, while Argentina have a 41% chance of glory.

Both teams are unbeaten in the tournament so far. Argentina have now gone 13 World Cup games without a loss, their most recent coming against Saudi Arabia in their opening game of the 2022 edition.

It has not all been plain sailing, though. They twice needed extra time to advance this year, against Cabo Verde and Switzerland, while the other two knockout games have been dramatic late comebacks against Egypt and England. How much will they have left in the tank?

Spain, meanwhile, have come through relatively comfortably - despite a couple of late Mikel Merino winners - and have only conceded one goal to Argentina's seven.

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