The stats behind Everton's attack-fuelled recovery under David Moyes ahead of Premier League clash with Wolves
Published 08/03/2025 at 09:39 GMT
Everton have dramatically improved under David Moyes since his return to management at Goodison Park and they have notably improved in attack. Before Moyes took over, Everton had scored just 15 goals in 19 games, the second-worst record in the Premier League. Now, they have scored a further 15 in the eight Premier League games since, and have propelled themselves away from the relegation zone.
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"I didn’t want to be the manager who took Everton down."
Those were the words of David Moyes when he spoke to TNT Sports ahead of the Premier League clash between Everton and Manchester United, as he discussed his sensational return to the club in January after Sean Dyche was sacked.
Moyes lost his first game back in charge, at home to Aston Villa, but has since beaten Tottenham Hotspur, Brighton & Hove Albion, Leicester City and Crystal Palace, whilst picking up draws against Liverpool, Manchester United and Brentford.
That is 15 points in just eight Premier League games, a little under half their total points haul this season, in just under a third of the games.
It has been a sensational period and on Saturday evening Moyes and Everton will travel to Wolverhampton Wanderers – the team just below them in the table – in the 20:00 UK time kick-off, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
A win could take them as high as 13th depending on results elsewhere, as they look to continue their march away from the relegation zone and firmly into the mid-table.
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'I didn't want to be the manager who took Everton down' - Moyes
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When asked by TNT Sports what has produced the change in form, Moyes was naturally diplomatic and played down the idea of something specific.
"I don't think there's a huge secret - trying to get the players to be a bit more confident and show more belief," he said.
"I think they got to the stage where - Sean [Dyche] did such a good job and got them through the difficult times of making sure they stayed in the league, and that was a difficult period for everyone - they've just got a bit more confidence.
"Winning gives you that great feeling, we've started to get it, created a load more chances. We've had a few injuries but the boys who've come in have done really well."
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Even a few days later, ahead of the draw against Brentford, Moyes exuded modesty when saying "I didn't think when I came in that we’d be on such a good run," and "there’s no magic formula".
It is classic Moyes to play down his role and put the praise back onto the players, but when you dig into the statistics, it is clear that he has had an enormous impact.
Let’s look at the goals: Everton have scored exactly half of their 30 Premier League goals under Moyes.
Not only has the team doubled its goals per game from 0.8 to 1.9, but they have also seen their expected goals rise from 0.96 per game to 1.45.
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It is a similar story for shots on target per game and big chances created per game, with those two metrics rising from 3.3 and 1.6, respectively, to 4.8 and 3.3.
So not only are they taking more shots, they are creating far more as well. But all of that does not mean anything if they can’t take those chances. Luckily, they’ve been doing that too.
Before Moyes took over, Everton were converting their chances at the second-worst rate in the Premier League.
Since Moyes returned, The Toffees are now converting their chances at a rate of 18.29%, second only to Manchester City.
No player represents this goalscoring shift better than striker Beto.
In his entire Everton career in the Premier League before Moyes took over, Beto had started in just 10 of his 42 games for 1,158 minutes, resulting in four goals.
Under Moyes, he has started five of seven matches he’s played in, scoring five goals over 532 minutes.
You can see the rise in his self-belief in some of the goals he has scored recently.
His opener against Liverpool was the perfect example of a player high on confidence, taking a chance and trusting their instincts to find a goal where perhaps it was not obviously there.
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He scored the opener against Manchester United as well, and in a similar vein, his strike was one of a striker playing with confidence and riding their luck. He simply was not converting these kind of chances under Dyche.
However, there is a big caveat here. Things have not been perfect. Notably against Brentford, Beto missed a hat-trick of chances that could have given Everton another vital three points.
Brentford keeper Mark Flekken deserves credit for the saves he made but Beto’s performance would have frustrated supporters.
But overall, it is clear that Everton are moving in the right direction when it comes to attacking play, because keeping out goals was never going to be a problem.
The team have conceded just 34 goals this season, despite being 16th in the Premier League table.
For context, the only teams who have conceded fewer this season are Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
Yes, the team in 16th has the sixth-best defensive record in the league.
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So, it was all about scoring goals. When Moyes took over, their 15 goals ranked them 19th in the Premier League.
Clearly, unless he could figure out a way to improve their offensive output, he would become the manager to take Everton down. Perhaps it really is as simple as giving players more confidence to help unlock someone like Beto.
Perhaps it really is as simple as giving more chances to someone like Jesper Lindstrom or more freedom to Abdoulaye Doucoure.
Perhaps it is as simple as capitalising on new arrivals such as January-addition Carlos Alcaraz or the fit-again James Garner, or just unleashing the shackles.
Whatever it is, for the first time in a long time, Everton are starting to look up, and ironically they had to go back in order to do so.
Moyes and his players deserve immense credit for rescuing what looked like a sinking ship. If they can carry on this momentum when it comes to creating and taking chances, they should end up surviving relegation comfortably.
Watch Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton live on TNT Sports and discovery+
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