Arsenal 'need a striker' - but is Ollie Watkins the right one? How does he compare to Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus?
Published 30/01/2025 at 13:04 GMT
Arsenal have reportedly had a £60m bid for Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins rejected. Mikel Arteta has said that Arsenal are "actively looking" to sign a striker - but does 29-year-old Watkins fit the bill, and how does he compare with Arsenal's current options? We crunch the numbers and stats to see how the England international has fared in front of goal.
Watkins finishes off superb team move as Villa retake lead over Celtic
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With just a few days left of the January transfer window, Arsenal’s striker search looks to be ramping up.
The Gunners have reportedly seen a bid of £60m rejected for Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins.
The England international has 11 goals in 32 games for Villa this season, and started and scored - and also slipped and missed a penalty - in a 4-2 victory over Celtic in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday.
Watkins joined Villa from Brentford in 2020 and has previously said it would be his "dream" to play for Arsenal.
But is he what Arsenal need in their hunt for a striker?
Watkins' conversion rate
When the news broke that Arsenal had bid for Watkins there were two negative points that were jumped on by those with doubts over the signing.
The first is Watkins’ age and whether, at 29, he is already at his peak, and whether, for £60m, he represents a long-term solution.
The second point was his conversion rate in front of goal.
Watkins has missed 19 big chances in the Premier League this season, more than any other player.
Erling Haaland is second with 18, with Nicolas Jackson third on 15 and Arsenal's Kai Havertz fourth on 14.
Another stat going against Watkins is his xGdiff - a metric showing the difference between a player's expected goals (xG) and their actual goals.
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According to WhoScored, Watkins' xGdiff is -3.83, with fellow Villa striker Jhon Duran, another player who could be on the move this window, on 1.07.
Bryan Mbuemo leads the way in the Premier League this season with 5.77, ahead of Matheus Cunha (5.23), Chris Wood (4.82), Alex Iwobi (3.14), and Alexander Isak (2.91).
However, taken since the start of 2022, Watkins' metrics mostly compare favourably to Arsenal's current forward options.
Watkins v Arsenal attackers since start of 2022/23 season via Opta
| Watkins | Havertz | Jesus | Saka | |
| Shot conversion rate | 17.5% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 14.4% |
| xG performance | -0.9 | -5.0 | -5.4 | +4.3 |
| Big chance conversion % | 34.4% | 35.9% | 36.6% | 52.8% |
Watkins also has a greater tally of goals and assists than all Arsenal's forward options since the start of 2022/23 - and a lower minutes per goal.
| Watkins | Havertz | Jesus | Saka | |
| Goals and assists | 68 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| Minutes per goal | 181 | 249 | 231 | 211 |
Last season, Watkins finished with 19 goals in the Premier League, and 15 the year before that.
Bukayo Saka was Arsenal’s top scorer last season in the league with 16. Havertz was second with 13, the only time he has hit double figures since moving to England.
Havertz is Arsenal’s leading scorer in the league this season with eight, ahead of Gabriel Martinelli on six. Saka, who is out injured, has five.
The last Arsenal forward to score 20 goals in a Premier League season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2019/20 with 22.
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'Oh my goodness!' – Watkins slips and spoons horror penalty over the bar
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Emery: I don’t want to sell
Mikel Arteta was not giving anything away when asked about a potential move for Watkins after Arsenal’s Champions League win over Girona.
"I can't talk about any of that," he said. "My confidence is that we have an amazing club with people always working to try and improve. Let's see what happens."
Villa boss Unai Emery was more firm with his message.
"I don't want [to sell]," he said. "Every player can be in the market in case it's good for the player, the club and the team. But to get this deal we are going to be very demanding as well and Watkins is our striker."
Arteta has previously said that Arsenal are "actively looking" to sign a striker after losing both Saka and Gabriel Jesus to long-term injuries.
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'Amazing!' – Rogers scores twice, including scorcher, in first five minutes as Celtic stunned
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‘Arsenal do need a striker’
TNT Sports expert Owen Hargreaves: "They do need a striker and there’s no shame in that. They do have to share the goals but imagine they had a No. 9. The sky is the limit for this group.
"Not many of these guys have won trophies yet, they are all kind of at the same phase of their career. If they could add someone with experience of winning trophies it would make a huge difference."
TNT Sports expert Martin Keown: "They have been without Saka and since they have returned to the Champions League he has been a part of 42% of their goals. You have to look at that.
"Ollie Watkins is an interesting one because he is a decent player. I don’t think Villa will accept the deal, but Arsenal are certainly pushing in the window and they need to strike at some point."
Former Villa midfielder Stiliyan Petrov: "They don't have to sell. In modern football, you expect the big clubs to come in and put bids in, but you do not have to sell.
"If you want to build something special, if you want to be consistent in Europe, you have to keep the players that make the difference. Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran, they have got that ability. Watkins has proven he can score goals and be the big-game player. So, you don't have to sell, you don't have to take the offer."
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