Liverpool v Manchester City: The big Capital One Cup final tactical preview

City manager Manuel Pellegrini will have his sights set on leaving the club having won a more significant trophy than this in his final season, but that is not to say that it would not be a welcome triumph to kick off a campaign run-in that could eventually come to define how many reflect on his City legacy.

His opposite number, Jurgen Klopp, may perhaps be marginally more hungry for success on the day - even if he hopes he is only just starting out on his Anfield adventure. It has been a surprisingly erratic start to his tenure on Merseyside - perhaps, if we are honest, with fewer high points than most expected - and Klopp would surely dearly love a trophy to give him greater bargaining power with his board and potential signings (along with guaranteed European football next term) heading into his first summer in control.

Following European commitments in midweek it is City who have had the extra day’s rest, but Liverpool were not required to travel halfway across the world to play. So who will lift the first silverware of the season?

Both teams entered this year’s competition in the third round, by virtue of their top-eight finish in the Premier League season. Liverpool needed a penalty shootout to beat Carlisle United (at home!) in their first tie of the competition, before returning to Anfield with a 1-0 win over Bournemouth in one of Brendan Rodgers’ final games in charge.

By the next round Jurgen Klopp had taken the reins, and his influence was clear as Liverpool hammered Southampton 6-1 at St Mary’s (a performance that remains one of the most impressive in English football so far this season). That qualified Liverpool for the semi-finals, where they beat Stoke City on penalties after both legs finished 1-0 to the away team.

Manchester City, meanwhile, opened with a 4-1 win over Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, and then trumped that with a 5-1 home success against Crystal Palace. A 4-1 win over Hull then followed, which propelled Pellegrini’s side into the semi-finals having scored 13 goals and conceded just three. The semi-finals saw City’s first loss of the competition, as they went down 2-1 to Everton in the first leg at Goodison Park, but came from behind in the second leg to win 3-1 on the night and secure a 4-3 aggregate triumph.

One of Klopp’s first great results successfully raised the already sky-high expectations for the German’s reign - something he might reflect upon with a certain wry smile, considering how inconsistent his side have been since that point. At the Etihad Stadium, however, the Reds gave a glimpse of the Klopp side that we all hope to see on a regular basis next season.

Playing without a traditional striker, Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho were nevertheless a thrilling attacking tandem, with their movement and incisive passing cutting apart a City defence that has proven itself to be prone to lapses. The Reds were 3-0 up thanks to Eliaquim Mangala’s own goal, Coutinho’s strike and Firmino’s sharp finish all by the half-hour mark, with Martin Skrtel’s belting late volley rounding things off in emphatic fashion.

“It was far away from perfect, but in moments it was really, really good,” Klopp said afterwards, as Jamie Carragher branded it one of the best performances he had seen in Premier League history.

Liverpool beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in similar fashion soon after but have struggled since to recapture that same vibrancy - and have particularly seemed to flounder at home, where the onus is on them to control the contest and counter-attacking opportunities are more limited.

City have found consistency hard to come all season long, of course, contriving to slip off the pace in the Premier League title race in recent weeks. but Wednesday’s Champions League win over Dynamo Kiev was a timely return to some sort of form, and led to a rallying cry from captain Vincent Kompany as the season enters a crucial phase.

“We could have scored many more goals,” the Belgian noted. “It was a Man City performance that we like to see more often until the end of the season. So far it’s been a good start to the week.”

It is probably too simplistic to suggest that City’s chances of victory will turn on what Pellegrini decides to do with Yaya Toure, but it certainly seems fair to suggest that the Ivorian’s position will have a big say on the encounter.

It is well-covered ground at this point, but it remains clear that City are a vulnerable team whenever Toure plays as one of the two holding players in central midfield, a calculated gamble from the manager that allows him to crowbar another attacking star into his team - with the accepted downside that Toure will occasionally switch off his defensive duties.

When Toure plays further up the pitch, as he did against Dynamo Kiev in midweek, his status as a defensive liability is covered by the more natural protective tendencies of Fernando and Fernandinho, albeit at the cost of having one fewer attacker on the pitch. But, with Kevin De Bruyne currently injured anyway, Pellegrini does not really have to worry about that at the moment.

It was perhaps a fitting reinforcement of this that Toure scored the goal in Kiev that effectively put the tie beyond doubt - and that intervention probably ensures he will continue in that role at Wembley on Sunday. That will likely have positive ramifications throughout the team: Sergio Aguero will have more support high up the pitch, while the defensive duo of Vincent Kompany and (presumably) Nicolas Otamendi will have greater protection from the Fernandos.

Considering the result when the two sides met earlier in the season, City will be wary of allowing Liverpool too much possession in the final third, or committing too many people forward and leaving themselves open on the counter-attack, but equally the performance against (an admittedly not match sharp) Kiev side will have reminded them of their attacking strength - they will know if they can feed Toure and David Silva in the right areas they will cause plenty of problems of their own.

A trite answer is that Liverpool will simply want a repeat of what transpired at the Etihad Stadium back in November, where their movement and incision in the final third reaped such rewards. But football at this level is a constantly evolving beast and City will have learned from that experience, necessitating some changes from the Reds.

City’s weakness is evidently in the centre of their defence, where the relative unfamiliarity of the partnership between Kompany and Otamendi (and the constant changes in personnel over the course of the season) has led to organisational slips that have created clear goalscoring opportunities for opponents. If Liverpool can win the ball consistently in midfield, they will feel confident of exploiting that issue.

Of course City’s main strength is at the other end of pitch, where they retain a wealth of great attacking options, so any Liverpool gameplan will be predicated on preventing the ball getting to the feet of Toure, Aguero et al. In the first meeting between the two sides Klopp opted to do this by pressing City a stage or two earlier on in their possessions - targeting the centre-backs and making it difficult for them to move the ball forward with any consistency, cutting off supply lines way before City’s attackers could make any impact.

City will now be expecting that, however, so Liverpool may need to be a bit more selective about who and when they press - focusing on the central players and perhaps leaving their wingers to cover Nathaniel Clyne and Alberto Moreno (City like to overload against opposition full-backs, something Liverpool will have to protect against).

Despite the game being at a neutral venue, it seems safe to assume that City will play like the home team and Liverpool will play like the away one (it probably suits both sides’ style of play, and reflects the favourites and underdogs on the day). Liverpool will have to have a plan for possession, however, so it will be interesting to see if Klopp chooses to replicate his ‘strikerless’ approach, or gives his team a focal point through Christian Benteke or (more intriguingly) Daniel Sturridge.

Ultimately, this game could come down to the success (or otherwise) of the team’s primary playmaker. Coutinho might be one of the few Liverpool players that this City squad would still covert, while Silva is a wizard around the edge of the box that even the greatest defences in the world are wary of.

It seems almost certain that the Spaniard will see more of the ball than his opposing No. 10, but equally he might receive much of it in wider areas (with Toure often occupying the centre of the pitch) and with a bank of defenders to contend with. Coutinho will see more of the ball with space in front of him, so the onus will really be on him to make the most of those less frequent opportunities to turn the screw.

As one of the few Liverpool players with the physical characteristics to match up to Toure, Can will have a big role to play in keeping the big Ivorian quiet. Klopp is clearly a big fan of his compatriot, and will likely give him a significant responsibility for making it difficult for City’s clearest midfield goalscoring threat.

Of course more established players than Can have been embarrassed by Toure, who will drop deeper and push further forward and different moments to try and unsettle Liverpool’s shape and create spaces for himself and others to exploit. Can will have to be alert to the danger, and ready for the battle.

Major finals have been known to turn on the performance of one of the goalkeepers, and it is fair to say that plenty of Liverpool fans will have concerns about Simon Mignolet’s ability to put in an error-free display.

Although prone to the odd glaring error himself, Hart has shown himself to be a goalkeeper for the big occasion in the past - whereas Mignolet has struggled for consistency and confidence all campaign.

Both are solid penalty stoppers, though - if it comes down to that particularly lottery, then we could see a number of saves. Could Mignolet erase some of the memories of this season with a heroic display?