Paris Saint-Germain no longer favourites as Real Madrid chances fade - What the supercomputer predicts for 2025 Club World Cup after latest results
Published 20/06/2025 at 13:50 GMT+1
32 teams are going to the 2025 Club World Cup with the aim of winning the tournament, but how many of them actually stand a chance and how many have no chance at all? Plus, who will make the final? And who is a good bet to make the knockout stages? Well, never fear because our friends at Opta have crunched the numbers in their supercomputer and given their predictions.
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The Club World Cup has existed in its current guise for a number of years, but for the first time there will be 32 teams across all major continents.
It promises to be a tournament like no other, but at the end of the day, the question on everyone’s mind is, who is going to win it?
Will the European giants dominate, as they did in the old format, or will teams from Asia, Africa, South America or North America be able to spring a surprise or two?
Our friends at Opta have been crunching the numbers, and they have come up with their predictions for not only who will reach the knockouts, but who is most likely to go on to win the final. Let’s dive into it.
Europeans to nearly go 12 for 12 into the knockouts
Let’s start with the last 16. It is pretty simple here, the top two teams from each group will go through to the last 16.
Of the 16 teams that Opta have given the best chance to reach the knockouts, 11 of the 12 European are represented, with only Austrian outfit RB Salzburg missing out, having been given a 34.7% chance of reaching the knockouts, which is 23rd out of 32.
Six teams are given a 90%+ chance of making the knockouts; and they’re not all European. Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Juventus are among them including Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami and Brazilian side Palmeiras.
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Incredibly, Opta predicts Inter Miami, Palmeiras and Botafogo have a greater chance of reaching the knockouts than Real Madrid.
To make the semi-finals
Let’s jump forward to the final four, and here things start getting interesting, because you have to think about the paths that teams will find themselves on.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at who Opta are predicting to reach the semi-finals. It is PSG, Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Chelsea who now have the best chance of reaching the semi-finals.
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However, the eagle-eyed among you will notice that City and Inter are on a collision course to meet in the quarter-finals. That means that whilst the first semi-final would be City facing off against Bayern, the second semi - based on the Opta simulations - would be PSG facing off against Real Madrid, a reunion for Kylian Mbappe.
To make the final and win
So then what about the final? Well, drum-roll please!
Pre-tournament predictions
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Pre-tournament Club World Cup predictions
Image credit: Opta
Current day predictions
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Current day Club World Cup predictions
Image credit: Opta
As you can see in the big graphics above, Opta are now predicting that Pep Guardiola’s side will come away victorious against PSG in the final.
The outcome changed after Phil Foden inspired City to win their opening match, while PSG were stunned by Brazilian outfit Botafogo in their second group game.
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It’s interesting that despite having to go through PSG and then Madrid, Chelsea still have the fourth-highest chance of reaching the final. They are at 20%, ahead of Inter at 19%, who would theoretically have to go through Man City and Bayern.
However, Madrid have dropped outside the top five and now only have an 18% chance of reaching the final and 9% chance of being crowned champions.
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Xabi Alonso’s men took a hit after they were unable to overcome a stubborn Al Hilal side in their opening match and claimed a 1-1 draw.
Following Messi’s heroics against FC Porto, Inter Miami’s chances of winning the tournament have improved from 0.2% to 1%.
However, there are now 17 teams who don’t stand a single chance being crowned champions, including European sides Porto and Salzburg.
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