Arsenal FAVOURITES for UEFA Champions League? Vote on spicy supercomputer verdict as Real Madrid predicted to struggle amid English dominance
Updated 14/10/2025 at 14:23 GMT+1
The UEFA Champions League is under way and primed to give us its usual heady mix of goals, glory and galacticos. But on that latter theme, the Opta supercomputer sees a difficult campaign ahead for Real Madrid, with English teams set to dominate. After two gloriously dramatic matchdays, here is the lowdown on the top contenders to win Europe's greatest honour, with your chance to vote below.
'Players want to come to Arsenal now' - Arteta on the Gunners' summer transfers
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Are Arsenal the leading contenders to win the UEFA Champions League this season?
After two thrilling matchdays, the Opta supercomputer certainly thinks so, ranking Mikel Arteta's Gunners as the favourites to win their first ever Champions League title.
The north London club's presence at the very top of Opta's predictions is consistent with an overall theme of English domination, with three Premier League clubs inside the top four.
After October's international break, the Champions League is set to return in style on October 21 with a bumper set of fixtures pitting European titans against one another.
It is some menu on TNT Sports and discovery+, with the following games all live and exclusive in the UK:
| Game | Date and time (BST) |
| Barcelona v Olympiacos | Tues, Oct 21 - 17:45 |
| Villarreal v Man City | Tues, Oct 21 - 20:00 |
| Newcastle United v Benfica | Tues, Oct 21 - 20:00 |
| Real Madrid v Juventus | Weds, Oct 22 - 20:00 |
| Chelsea v Ajax | Weds, Oct 22 - 20:00 |
| Frankfurt v Liverpool | Weds, Oct 22 - 20:00 |
| Monaco v Tottenham | Weds, Oct 22 - 20:00 |
But now let's dive into the detail.
After simulating the 2025/26 Champions League 10,000 times, Opta's supercomputer has given their verdict on who will win it.
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UEFA Champions League probability after MD2
Image credit: Opta
In a quite stunning revelation, Arsenal usurp last season's champions Paris Saint-Germain in Opta's predictions to take home the European title this season.
After several years of falling just short in the Premier League, and last season's run to the Champions League semi-finals, Arsenal spent big in the summer in hope of those gains which would put trophies in the cabinet.
But they have only ever reached one Champions League final, and, per Opta, are the team to have played the most European Cup/UEFA Champions League games without ever lifting the trophy (211). Can that change this time around?
European champions PSG have shown little sign of weakness in the wake of their stunning 2024/25 campaign and are not far behind in Opta's estimations.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have slipped to third after initially leading Opta's supercomputer rankings.
After a transfer splurge of their own in the summer, coming off the back of a domestic title win and with last season's exit to the eventual winners in mind, it's perhaps not too surprising to see Arne Slot's side in the top three, but they were defeated 1-0 by Galatasaray in their second league phase fixture, showing some early fallibility.
Equally striking is the lowly ranking of 15-time winners Real Madrid, who are seventh, despite two wins from two thus far.
In fourth sit 2023 winners Manchester City with an 11% chance of going the distance. Bayern Munich and Barcelona make up the top six.
Enzo Maresca's Chelsea, meanwhile, have been given a 4% chance of taking home their third Champions League crown. They bounced back from their opening 3-1 defeat to Bayern with a 1-0 victory over Benfica, as legendary former boss Jose Mourinho endured a fruitless return to Stamford Bridge.
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How the UEFA Champions League works - format explained and changes through the years
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Does spending bring success?
Whether the lavish Premier League spending translates into success on the biggest stage will be one of the fascinating subplots of this Champions League season.
One man who harbours some doubts about this is Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski, who lamented the amounts going towards unproven players.
"They [the English big spenders] are among the favourites as well but you still have Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG…in the Premier League, they pay a lot," Lewandowski said.
"You see the players they are buying for big prices when players don’t even have one good season.
"You are young, you score 10 goals in six months and some club will pay €60 million (£52m) or €70 million (£61m). Before, you had to achieve something.
"But you never know if the price they pay brings the quality they want."
Cast your votes
With all this in mind and as the games begin, here are three questions for you to tuck into.
Stream the 2025/26 Premier League, Champions League, UEFA League, Conference League, Serie A and men's and women's FA Cup live on TNT Sports and discovery+Â Â Â
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