Arsenal and Spurs European champions? Supercomputer reveals stunning findings ahead of Champions League, Europa League and Conference League semis
Published 29/04/2025 at 07:11 GMT+1
It is that time of the season where everything is on the line, with history beckoning and heroes to be anointed. Europe's club competitions are at the semi-final stage, with plenty of English interest in the form of Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea. Can The Gunners reach their first UEFA Champions League final since 2006? Could there be an all-English UEFA Europa League final? The predictions are in.
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It is make or break for the English clubs left in Europe as the semi-final stages arrive - but the stats suggest it could be a glorious denouement.
Arsenal - after their glittering victory over Real Madrid in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League - face the potentially even thornier prospect of getting past a thoroughly well-oiled Paris Saint-Germain team containing some of the continent's most in-form players.
For Spurs and Manchester United, meanwhile, Europe has been a welcome distraction amid a difficult domestic campaign.
Ange Postecoglou will hope his team can save their season by winning the UEFA Europa League, and if they qualify for the final, they could meet Ruben Amorim's United, themselves looking to put a happy footnote on their struggles.
There could be a further European triumph as Chelsea bid to complete their set of European trophies by winning the UEFA Conference League.
Ahead of the last-four ties across all three European competitions - available to watch and stream live on TNT Sports and discovery+ - we have consulted the data gurus at Opta to see who they think will emerge triumphant...
Gunning for glory?
Yes, you are reading that correctly.
Arsenal, per the supercomputer, are favourites to win the Champions League.
Whether that will come to pass or not is another matter, but it would represent a seismic moment for English football, and of course, for Mikel Arteta and his group of players.
Meanwhile, in the other half of the draw, Internazionale are extremely marginal favourites to get past Barcelona, in a tie that looks set to be a classic clash of styles.
Spurs lead the way
Could Postecoglou's side make it a golden summer in North London?
The stats suggest as much, with Spurs given a 35% chance of joining Arsenal in becoming European champions, the highest of any of the final four.
Spurs take on Bodo/Glimt over two legs in their Europa League semi-final, with Opta deeming the former to have a 70% likelihood of making the final in Bilbao.
Joining them in that showpiece will be either Athletic Club - on home soil - or Manchester United.
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Athletic boss Ernesto Valverde has put together a fine outfit boasting the devastating talent of Nico Williams, who - fitness permitting - will give Amorim's side a stern defensive working-over.
And the Basque club are backed to edge past United, with a 55% chance.
But as United's wild quarter-final win showed, anything is possible...
Chelsea's to lose?
Many have felt, from the outset, that there will only be one winner in this year's Conference League.
Chelsea's budget, squad profile and standing mean they have been favourites from the first whistle, but it is not done yet.
A tricky semi-final with Djurgardens awaits - from which Enzo Maresca's Blues are given a 92% chance of progression - before the final in Wroclaw against either Fiorentina or Real Betis.
Both sides are having decent domestic seasons, and in the case of La Viola, they have reached the final in the last two editions of the Conference League, losing to West Ham in 2023 before also succumbing last year to Olympiacos.
How does the Opta supercomputer model work?
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
Thoughts?
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