'I would have Harry Kane ahead of him' - Michael Owen explains how Erling Haaland is 'underperforming in front of goal'

Michael Owen says he would pick Harry Kane over Erling Haaland in a finishing contest after highlighting how the Manchester City striker is “underperforming in front of goal” in 2023-24.

Haaland has been in formidable form this season, scoring 29 goals in 32 games in all competitions including City’s third in a 3-1 UEFA Champions League win over FC Copenhagen on Wednesday.

But after that game, which saw City progress to the quarter-finals with a 6-2 aggregate score, TNT Sports expert Owen explained how a closer look at the data shows that Haaland has not been as composed in front of goal as Europe’s elite.

“If my life depended on it, in a finishing contest, I would have Harry Kane, I would have a few strikers ahead of Haaland, I must admit,” Owen said.

“He scores massive goals, so you’ve got to be careful what you say, because you can be made to look foolish with the numbers he scores. It’s incredible.”

Last season, Haaland averaged 1.17 goals per game from an xG of 0.93, while this season he has mustered 0.88 goals per game from an xG of 1.02.

Former Liverpool and England striker Owen explained what the data means in real terms and what might be behind the Norwegian being less clinical than in previous years.

“xG in general terms is your predicted score, so if you’re taking a penalty it’s a 0.79 chance of scoring a goal. If you accumulate that with loads of data over time, you get an eventual xG,” Owen explained.

“Haaland’s is below par. He should have scored about three more in the Premier League, he should have scored an extra goal in the Champions League, and that’s before you look at cup competitions. He’s below what you would expect on chances he’s been given this season.”

He continued: “Pep Guardiola just mentioned it. He said he played more or less the full game because he needs to get some rhythm. He’s not actually as sharp as he has been in previous years, the numbers bear that out as well. A lot of people will remember the chance he missed against Manchester United the other day, which was startling really.

“He’s an incredible finisher, but bear in mind that when you’re talking about a great player, they always should outperform xG. That’s the whole reason for them being a great player.

“To be under xG, and it to be a Manchester City striker, that’s not alarming at all, but it should be a lot better, it’s been better in previous seasons. But this year he’s definitely underperforming in front of goal.”

Owen’s point was backed up by a graphic that showed how Haaland is the only leading scorer in Europe’s top five leagues to be underperforming his xG this season.

Bayern Munich’s Kane, Kylian Mbappe of Paris Saint-Germain, Inter’s Lautaro Martinez and Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid are all above their expected tallies, while Haaland’s Premier League-high 18 goal haul is below the expected 20.8.

“If you look at the top scorers this season, Kane is nearly six goals ahead of average, Mbappe is ahead of average, they are all ahead of average really,” Owen said.

“Haaland gets an awful lot of chances and scores an awful lot of goals, but his efficiency isn’t quite there this season, and it’s important to say that because in previous seasons he has been.

“The top goalscorers in Europe currently are really efficient and Haaland’s building towards that. He’s had an injury this season, he’s been out for a while, maybe a bit of rustiness, and that might have been what Guardiola was alluding to.”

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