Who will win the Ballon d'Or first: Erling Haaland or Kylian Mbappe? TNT Sports experts make predictions
Published 12/11/2025 at 14:20 GMT
Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe have enjoyed fine starts for club and country this season. Both forwards lead the way by some distance at this early stage in the race for the Golden Boot in their respective leagues, with a combined total of 27 goals. But which player is likely to win the Ballon d'Or award first? TNT Sports pundits Steve McManaman and Fara Williams make their predictions.
Highlights: Foden scores twice and Haaland nets again in win
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Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are at the peak of their powers so far this season.
Both players lead the way in the race for the Golden Boot in their respective leagues, with Haaland topping the Premier League charts with 14 goals, while Mbappe is the main marksman in Spain with 13 goals to his name.
Mbappe's performances have played a key role in Real Madrid opening up a three-point lead at the top of La Liga, while Haaland's goalscoring exploits have been key to Manchester City mounting a title challenge this season.
With both excelling, Haaland and Mbappe appear set to be the main contenders for the 2026 Ballon d'Or award.
Neither player has picked up the prestigious award before, so who will win the Ballon d'Or first?
TNT Sports experts Steve McManaman and Fara Williams weighed in on the debate and gave their predictions on the two biggest names in football right now.
Haaland and Mbappe finished in the top three of the Ballon d'Or voting in 2023 but missed out after Lionel Messi won the award for a historic eighth time, following his World Cup triumph with Argentina.
It is the closest that either player has come to winning the Ballon d'Or with neither Mbappe or Haaland making the top three rankings before or since 2023.
Haaland was one of the favourites to win the award that year after enjoying a stunning debut campaign with Manchester City which ended with Pep Guardiola's team winning the Treble.
Mbappe finished third two years ago, which is his highest ranking in the award, following his exploits with Paris Saint-Germain and France where he notched a hat-trick in the World Cup final.
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With performances at the World Cup likely to be a decider in next year's voting, Real Madrid and Liverpool legend McManaman believes that Mbappe holds a slight advantage.
"I would select Mbappe because I think France have a better chance of winning the World Cup," he told TNT Sports.
"With all respect to Erling, I don’t think Norway will win the World Cup, and I must say that Harry Kane will have a chance of winning the Ballon d'Or too.
"It all depends on who will win the Champions League and then what happens at the World Cup. If Kylian wins La Liga and then backs it up by helping France win the World Cup, there’s a good chance that he’ll win it."
Lionesses legend Williams agrees that the World Cup will be a deciding factor in the voting but emphasised that Haaland's achievements should not be overlooked.
"We can’t keep avoiding what Haaland is doing at Manchester City," she told TNT Sports.
"What I like about both players is that they like that pressure of being the main man who is expected to deliver goals for their clubs. They thrive off that pressure of having to be the best every single week.
"I would probably back Haaland after how he has started this season but in the broader picture with the World Cup on the horizon, he might not have a chance with Norway in the same way that Mbappe does with France.
"If we were just focusing on club form looking at the potential of Man City in the Premier League and Champions League this season, you would bet on Haaland to win the award given his numbers so far.
"But with the World Cup happening this summer, I think Mbappe is slightly ahead of Haaland in terms of winning the Ballon d’Or next year."
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Mbappe 'looks like a man possessed' says Williams
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'We can’t put them in the Messi-Ronaldo bracket'
Haaland and Messi have been tipped to enjoy a sporting rivalry similar to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in terms of going head-to-head for the Ballon d'Or.
The award was dominated by Messi and Ronaldo from 2008-2017 with Luka Modric becoming the first player to break the duopoly in 2018.
Williams believes it is unlikely that Mbappe and Haaland can match the Messi-Ronaldo rivalry but is confident that both players can become the new stars for the next generation.
She explained: "I don’t think anyone can match the Messi and Ronaldo rivalry for the award in terms of their consistency over such a long period of time.
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Haaland: 'I knew I was going to perform at Man City' after 'studying' the team
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"I think Haaland is showing signs of that consistency since joining Manchester City in terms of his goal return as he could become the quickest player to score 100 goals in the Premier League.
"I think that we’ll certainly be comparing both Mbappe and Haaland in the next 10 years just because of the numbers that they’re producing.
"But we can’t put them in the Messi-Ronaldo bracket yet especially when both of those guys are still playing at a high level for club and country which is the crazy thing.
"I’m not sure that Mbappe and Haaland will still be producing the goods when they reach Messi and Ronaldo’s age but they will definitely be the most talked about players in the next five-10 years."
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