Jonas Vingegaard, Egan Bernal, Jai Hindley, Joao Almeida or Juan Ayuso? Ranking the red jersey favourites for La Vuelta 2025
Published 21/08/2025 at 13:36 GMT+1
Can Jonas Vingegaard put his Tour de France disappointment behind him by winning La Vuelta before his big rival Tadej Pogacar? Will Egan Bernal complete his grand slam? Could Jai Hindley do the business for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe before Remco Evenepoel arrives? Or will Juan Ayuso finally catch a break for UAE Team Emirates-XRG? We rank the red jersey favourites for La Vuelta 2025.
From Turin to Madrid: Official route for the 2025 Vuelta a Espana
Video credit: TNT Sports
Tadej Pogacar is taking a well-earned rest. Remco Evenepoel, the 2022 champion, will not make one final bow for Soudal Quick-Step ahead of his Red Bull switch.
There is no sixth appearance for triple runner-up Enric Mas thanks to thrombophlebitis in his left leg. Richard Carapaz has other fish to fry.
Nairo Quintana does not even make the cut for Movistar. Ditto Derek Gee for Israel-PremierTech.
But fear not, the start-list for La Vuelta 2025 - live on TNT Sports and discovery+ - is still stacked full of talent and the final Grand Tour of the summer promises a big battle for the red jersey and top 10 places.
Double Tour de France champion Jonas Vingegaard is the bookmakers’ favourite as the Dane returns to the Vuelta for the first time since 2020.
UAE Team Emirates-XRG line up with a two-pronged attack of Juan Ayuso and Joao Almeida.
Mikel Landa will deputise for the absent (and soon departing) Evenepoel for Quick-Step, while Colombia’s Egan Bernal will hope to get back to winning ways in the next stage of his long comeback from career-threatening injury.
While Vingegaard’s push to beat his resting rival Pogacar to a Vuelta title takes up a lot of the pre-race narrative, the typically climber-friendly route – with its 10 uphill or summit finishes – favours a whole host of riders, and is bound to throw up thrills, spills and the odd curveball.
Before focusing on the 10 riders who make our ranking, we mull over those who missed the cut and explain why they will be absent from the manoeuvrings for the red jersey.
- The seven stages that will decide who wins La Vuelta
- Vingegaard has chance to make history in Pogacar’s absence
- 'Clear favourite' Vingegaard has nothing to prove at La Vuelta, says Contador
The Vuelta also-rans: those who will fall short of the top 10
Britain’s Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling) has stated his intent to ride for GC in Spain and yet nothing suggests that the 26-year-old is ready to crack the top 10 of a Grand Tour.
Since leaving Ineos Grenadiers, Pidcock finished 16th in the Giro to match the 16th of his first Tour in 2022.
In his only previous appearance in the Vuelta, he finished 67th. A focus on stage wins would be a better target for a rider who was recently denied Arctic Race glory by New Zealand’s Corbin Strong.
After coming a surprise sixth in the Giro after team-mate Primoz Roglic crashed out, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe) makes his debut in the Vuelta.
The 21-year-old Italian is an outside bet for the white jersey but may struggle riding two Grand Tours for the first time in a single season.
It seems a long time since Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) won Paris-Nice in style, but the American – like his compatriot Sepp Kuss, the unlikely 2023 champion – will be back in domestique mode for Vingegaard in Spain.
Unless, of course, he does a Kuss and gets into a break that takes half an hour on the rest of the peloton.
Ireland’s Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla) just missed out on the top 10 in last year’s Vuelta off the back of his two stage wins.
He should be a marked man, though, this year – and his record of three DNFs in his last four Grand Tours doesn’t do the 28-year-old any favours.
Dunbar – who joins Q35.6 Pro Cycling at the end of the season – will be motivated to sign off in style at Jayco.
The GC ship seems to have sailed for David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), who came eighth in his first Vuelta in 2020 and sixth last year.
An unlucky crash derailed the Frenchman’s Giro, where he finished 66th – one place worse than his finish at last year’s Tour.
With the pressure off, perhaps Gaudu will cause a surprise in the Vuelta. But judging by his showing at the Tour de l’Ain, that’s a fanciful prospect.
Meanwhile, a stage win and a tilt at the polka dot jersey may be a more realistic focus for 29-year-old Italian, Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team).
And finally, Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) showed early promise this season before a crash in the Dauphine derailed his Tour de France preparations somewhat.
The 25-year-old came 40th in the Tour - his worst Grand Tour result since his debut at the Vuelta in 2020.
Buitrago has finished 10th in both the Tour (2024) and the Vuelta (2023) but he may just miss out this time and come 11th while working for his team leader, Antonio Buitrago.
Which brings us neatly to our predicted top 10, in reverse order...
10. Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
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Jai Hindley
Image credit: Getty Images
There is nothing like the prospect of internal competition to rouse the giant inside. It seems like a long time since the Australian delivered Bora their first Grand Tour at the 2022 Giro.
Hindley has since posted top 10s in both the Vuelta and Tour, but the 29-year-old has found himself somewhat sidelined by the arrival of Primoz Roglic and the emergence of German youngster Florian Lipowitz.
Hindley may well have prospered following Roglic’s withdrawal in the Giro this May had he still been in the race.
A nasty fall on slippery roads in the sodden stage to Naples sent him packing and it was team-mate Giulio Pellizzari who, instead, provided the silver lining.
Despite his breakthrough, the Italian should be riding in support of Hindley in Spain. But with Remco Evenepoel set to arrive in 2026 and Lipowitz looking to build on his podium finish in Paris, Hindley will be keen to push for a result that will both remind his team management of his qualities, while also putting himself in the shop window.
Two years since his last win, Hindley will hope to complete his Grand Tour collection with a stage win in Spain, plus a top-10 finish. He should do both – just.
9. Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step)
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Mikel Landa waves on stage during the opening ceremony and team presentation in Tirana, on May 7, 2025
Image credit: Getty Images
The principal short-term beneficiary of Evenepoel’s move to Red Bull should be the man who was initially brought into his current team to support the Belgian in the mountains – the veteran Basque climber, Landa.
When he gets to the finish, the 35-year-old has an impressively consistent record in Grand Tours, with 10 top-10 finishes in his career to date, including fifth in his last Tour, and eighth and fifth in his last two Vueltas.
That these results have come while Landa has been riding in support of others further underlines his dependability.
Gone is his past acceleration and explosiveness, but so too have the rash tactics and hot-headedness disappeared from his armoury.
What is left is a steady Eddie who will cling on and limit his losses – which makes him ideal material for a conservatively high finish come Madrid.
With Evenepoel jumping ship and Quick-Step unlikely to bring in a replacement GC rider, Landa – who is under contract for another year – could enjoy an Indian summer to his long career. Heck, he may even pick up a first Vuelta stage win in a decade.
8. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)
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Egan Bernal, Giro d'Italia 2025
Image credit: Getty Images
It remains a dream of the Colombian to win the Vuelta crown that will complete his Grand Tour collection.
Five years ago, this may have seemed likely. But the rise of Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, coupled with Bernal’s own injury problems, makes this a rather fanciful prospect.
There have been signs of encouragement from the 28-year-old this year: Bernal won both national titles before finishing seventh in Catalunya and seventh in the Giro – his highest in a Grand Tour since coming sixth in the Vuelta the same year he won the Giro in 2021.
Sixth in the Vuelta a Burgos earlier in August, Bernal clearly still has good legs. But whether they’re good enough to push for a podium finish in Madrid remains to be seen.
A stage win may come if he ships lots of time – but a far more plausible scenario sees Bernal plugging away dutifully every day, limiting his loses and securing another top-10 finish.
Such a result won’t be life-changing for Bernal, but it would do his confidence a world of good and lay yet firmer foundations ahead of 2026.
7. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
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Giulio Ciccone celebrates
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The Italian climber Giulio Ciccone was on course for a high finish in the Giro until he crashed on the wet cobblestones on the day the race popped into Slovenia.
Ciccone came fifth in the Vuelta a Burgos on his first race back since his DNF, winning notably the final stage to Lagunas de Neila ahead of Isaac del Toro, the overall winner.
It’s amazing to think that the 30-year-old has yet to crack the top 10 of a Grand Tour: his best finish being 11th in last year’s Tour.
Six DNFs – including two in his previous two outings – underlines Ciccone’s tendency to crack, crash or get caught out. But he’s picked up some big wins in his career – notably three on the Giro – and, on his day, can climb with the best.
Provided he stays upright and catches a break, Ciccone may finally get the top-10 finish that his palmares deserves.
6. Ben O’Connor (Jayco-AlUla)
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Ben O'Connor
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Last year’s surprise package, the Australian came within two days of an unexpected Vuelta victory after taking the red jersey in the middle of the opening week with his breakaway win at Yunquera.
Primoz Roglic slowly clawed his way back into contention, winning on the Alto de Moncalvillo in Stage 19 to wrest red off O’Connor’s back.
A slow start to the season was compounded by a nasty crash on the opening day of the Tour which seemingly put paid to any GC bid.
But the 29-year-old rallied – winning with gusto on the Col de la Loze to rise into the top 10. Missing a split on the penultimate day saw him drop to 11th in the final GC, but the Tour was ultimately a success, all things considered.
Twenty-fifth and seventh in previous Vueltas before last year’s runner-up spot, O’Connor also has fourth-place finishes to his name in both the Giro (2024) and Tour (2021).
He will not be in the frame for the red jersey this time round, but a stage win and a solid top-10 finish is likely provided he avoids hitting the deck early on.
5. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
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Felix Gall - Team Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
Image credit: Getty Images
The dependable Austrian could well match his solid fifth place in the Tour, although it is worth remembering that the 27-year-old struggled last year when also adding the Vuelta to his schedule.
On his day, Gall is a first-rate climber capable of winning big, although that day has only happened twice, and on both occasions two years ago – in the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de France.
Gall's victory in Courchevel after his ascent of the Col de la Loze in 2023 remains the abiding moment of his short but impressive career to date.
Now a two-time top-10 finisher at the Tour, he has what it takes to leave his mark in the Vuelta despite the question marks that linger on his ability in the heat.
4. Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious)
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Antonio Tiberi
Image credit: Getty Images
Still only 24, the Italian doesn’t win often – just twice in his career: a stage in the Tour de Hongrie and the overall in last year’s Tour de Luxembourg – but he’s now ridden five Grand Tours, most notably winning the white jersey and coming fifth in the 2024 Giro.
Fifth place is probably as high as Tiberi can go in his fourth Vuelta, although he arrives off the back of finishing runner-up in the Tour de Pologne.
Tiberi was on course for a top-10 finish in the Giro this May until he cracked in Stage 17 to Bormio, finishing over 10 minutes back after crashing badly in the same incident that ended compatriot Giulio Ciccone’s race and dented Egan Bernal’s hopes in Stage 14.
Earlier in the season, gastroenteritis ended Tiberi’s Tour of the Alps after he’d come third in Tirreno-Adriatico.
If he can stay out of trouble, Tiberi should be able to follow enough wheels to sandbag his way to a decent finish in Madrid. Just don’t count on seeing him too much.
3. Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
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Juan Ayuso
Image credit: Getty Images
Is this the last major race we will see of Ayuso in a UAE jersey? The Spaniard is contracted until 2028, but if Remco Evenepoel can force a move away, then why not a 22-year-old who is clearly struggling with playing third fiddle behind Tadej Pogacar and Joao Almeida?
The emergence of Isaac del Toro at the Giro following Ayuso’s crash - and bee sting-fuelled DNF - will only add more grist to the mill. And a lot may depend on who comes out on top in Ayuso’s internal battle with Almeida on the road to Madrid this summer.
Ayuso’s season started well, the Spanish climber winning two of his first three one-day races before beating Filippo Ganna to Tirreno-Adriatico glory.
Runner-up to Primoz Roglic in Catalunya, Ayuso was just seconds behind team-mate Del Toro in the Giro before he succumbed to knee pain in Stage 16 following his fall a few days earlier.
Ultimately, it was an allergic reaction to that sting which ended his race, our abiding memory of Ayuso being his swollen face during a painful pre-stage interview.
He has raced just twice since his exit, notably coming second – behind Del Toro, again – in the Circuito de Getxo. The Mexican will not get in his way in Spain, but Almeida may.
2. Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
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Joao Almeida.
Image credit: Getty Images
The Portuguese all-rounder has been one of the most consistent GC forces all season – so much so that his team-mate Pogacar recently said that, had he not crashed out of the Tour, he could well have finished ahead of Jonas Vingegaard in the general classification.
As for the Vuelta, a lot will depend on whether the 27-year-old has fully recovered from the crash that ended his Tour, in which he suffered numerous abrasions and a fractured rib.
Given he has not raced since the end of the first week of July, it remains to be seen what kind of form Almeida has coming into his fourth Vuelta.
A DNF in 2024, Almeida came fourth in 2022 and ninth in 2023 – and has yet not to make the top 10 of a Grand Tour which he has finished.
After coming runner-up in Valenciana and Algarve at the start of the season, Almeida was sixth in Paris-Nice before winning Itzulia, Romandie and the Tour de Suisse.
That made him the most in-form rider entering the Tour, where UAE put their Giro disappointment behind them with a comprehensive win for Pogacar.
As things stand, both UAE and Visma-Lease a Bike have one Grand Tour triumph each this season, which leads us nicely onto our overall pick for the red jersey…
1. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
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Jonas Vingegaard
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And then there was one. And there can only really be one, really.
No longer capable of beating Tadej Pogacar over three weeks in France, it stands to reason that the Dane will win the Vuelta in the Slovenian’s absence.
If and when he does stand on the top step of the podium in Madrid, Vingegaard will do so in the knowledge that he has managed to achieve something his big rival has yet to do – and that has become increasingly rare given the ever-growing palmares of Pogacar.
It could also set up the alluring prospect of Vingegaard trying to double down and beat Pogacar to a Grand Tour grand slam by entering next year’s Giro – a move which could see the world champion call Vingegaard’s bluff by also targeting the maglia rosa next year, too.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves and entering the realms of the hypothetical here. Let’s focus on the facts. Visma-Lease a Bike will probably have the strongest team in Spain, and they won’t have any dual leadership issues – unless either Sepp Kuss or Matteo Jorgenson pull something out of the bag.
With just a single stage win and the Volta ao Algarve title to his name this season, Vingegaard will be keen to end the year on a high and salvage something from an otherwise lacklustre campaign.
He will also be determined to prove that he is not a spent force by stealing the narrative away from Pogacar and his relentless pursuit of brilliance.
Mostly, the 28-year-old will be keen on ending a run of 10 second-place stage finishes – and two GC runner-up spots – by returning to the top of the podium.
A win or two over the next three weeks should also put Vingegaard in a commanding position to become the first Danish cyclist to win the Vuelta.
Provided he stays on two wheels and avoids any drama, he should make history.
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Watch every stage of La Vuelta 2025 live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
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