Vuelta a Espana 2023: Red jersey guide – Jumbo-Visma duo the biggest threat to Remco Evenepoel’s crown
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Updated 25/08/2023 at 08:06 GMT+1
Defending champion Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) will face stiff opposition from Jumbo-Visma duo Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic at La Vuelta a Espana 2023. Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz have a point to prove, Egan Bernal is back, Geraint Thomas is getting no younger, and Juan Ayuso is chomping at the bit. Felix Lowe on Remco's rivals for red…
'We'll have a lot of fun' - Roglic and Vingegaard on Jumbo's super squad for La Vuelta
Video credit: TNT Sports
No fewer than nine uphill finishes – including a summit showdown in Andorra as early as day three – will provide a stern test to the red jersey credentials of Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) in the third and final Grand Tour of the season.
Most notably, the defending champion from Belgium will come up with the formidable Jumbo-Visma duo of Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard – two riders who could each secure an individual double on the way to seeing Jumbo become the first team ever to win all three of cycling’s Grand Tours in one season.
La Vuelta 2023 gets under way on Saturday, August 26 with a team time trial around Barcelona in which Jumbo-Visma – who won the corresponding stage last year – will be the firm favourites to secure the first red jersey of the race. And with Giro champion Roglic and Tour winner Vingegaard in their stellar squad, it’s hard to look beyond the Dutch outfit for overall glory come Madrid.
Three-time winner Roglic knows exactly what it takes to bring the red jersey home, while the Slovenian’s Danish team-mate returns to La Vuelta – where he made his Grand Tour debut back in 2020 – for the first time since taking the Tour by storm.
But who else stands a chance of pushing for the podium in Spain? Let’s take a closer look at the favourites, outsiders, sleeping giants and also-rans in the battle for red…
The defending champion: Remco Evenepoel
Last year, the Belgian was well equipped with everything the Vuelta threw at him. He coped well in the mountains, and when his biggest rival did distance him at Sierra Nevada, he limited his losses to just 15 seconds. Evenepoel’s job was admittedly made easier when Roglic crashed out at the start of the third week – and this time round, the 23-year-old will have far more rivals than the Slovenian alone.
Evenepoel looked on course to add the Giro to his Vuelta crown in May – until his withdrawal while in pink handed the initiative to Roglic, who managed to peg back Geraint Thomas in the deciding time trial. The 78th Vuelta will be the biggest test of Evenepoel’s GC credentials to date – with far longer, harder and steeper climbs on the menu, plus half as many TT kilometres.
The Angliru alone in Stage 17 will be like nothing Evenepoel has raced so far. And competing against double Tour champion Jonas Vingegaard on the Col du Tourmalet in Stage 13 will give us all a taste of things to come, with Evenepoel scheduled to make his Tour de France debut in 2024.
This Vuelta will either reconfirm the Belgian's meteoric rise or be a rude awakening for a man who hopes to dine out at the top table.
The double seekers: Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard
If Jumbo-Visma do what no other team has ever done before and complete a Grand Tour grand slam in a single season, then one of their co-leaders will pick up a historic double of his own – unless Wilco Kelderman pulls a red rabbit out of the hat, that is.
Given his momentum from the Tour – where he was head, shoulders and an entire torso better than everyone else – you would think Vingegaard would be a safer bet on becoming the first rider since Chris Froome in 2017 to do the Tour-Vuelta double.
But the Dane has only ridden a few criteriums since taking yellow in Paris, while Roglic was in fine fettle at the Vuelta a Burgos – picking up his first wins since that eleventh-hour Giro triumph. Wear red in Madrid for a fourth time in his career and the 33-year-old will be the first man since Alberto Contador in 2008 to win both the Giro and Vuelta in the same season.
A lot will depend on who is the designated leader or if Jumbo-Visma simply let the road do the talking. Seeing Roglic and Vingegaard battle against each other is a mouth-watering prospect; the thought of them riding together, less so – for they could suck everything from the race.
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Roglic outsprints Yates for stage win and race lead at Tour of Burgos
Video credit: TNT Sports
The fallen giant: Enric Mas
The Spaniard hasn't raced since crashing out of the opening stage of the Tour de France on the same sweeping downhill corner as Richard Carapaz. That will give him negligible form coming into the Vuelta, not to mention serious question marks over his condition.
Indeed, Carapaz was expected to join Mas on the start list but the Ecuadorian has been ruled out at the eleventh-hour to draw a firm line under his unlucky first season at EF Education-EasyPost.
A lack of racing and preparation should discount Mas from playing a serious role in the GC battle – but, then again, riding for Movistar in a race opening with a team time trial was always going to be an uphill struggle. Mas will look to save his season with a stage win and – at best – a tilt at the top five.
The last chancers: Geraint Thomas and Damiano Caruso
Winning the Giro would have been the perfect – and a fitting – swansong for Thomas, whose 37-year-old legs may struggle to replicate similar form in Spain as he did in Italy. Still without a contract next season, the Welsh veteran would put himself in the shop window with a strong performance – but surely a tilt at the red jersey is beyond the 2018 Tour champion.
If just 14 seconds separated Roglic and Thomas in Rome, then that gap is more likely to be 14 minutes in Madrid – with Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) looking very much off the pace in both the Worlds TT and the Tour de Pologne recently.
Two years younger, Italian climber Caruso (Bahrain-Victorious) also knows what it’s like to finish runner-up in the Giro – although his second-place finish behind Egan Bernal in 2021 was something to celebrate rather than to rue. Caruso was fourth in May but did not pull up any trees in the Vuelta a Burgos or Pologne in his two outings since.
The young buck: Juan Ayuso
Third in his Vuelta debut last year, the 20-year-old Spanish climber will spearhead UAE Team Emirates’ charge alongside Portuguese team-mate Joao Almeida. Even in the absence of Tadej Pogacar, it’s a super strong team with Jay Vine and Marc Soler also present.
Ayuso has ridden sparingly this season with only 19 race days in his legs, and his last competitive appearance – a DNF in the Circuito de Getxo – coming in late July. Provided he is over the injuries he picked up from his early crash at Getxo, Ayuso could be the dark horse of this Vuelta.
Of course, it’s crazy to think of someone who finished on the podium last year as a dark horse – but it’s indicative of the calibre of the stellar start list 12 months on.
The podium pushers: Joao Almeida and Aleksandr Vlasov
One of the big question marks over Ayuso – beyond his condition and lack of form – is the leadership structure at UAE. With top dog Pog not present, Almeida may pull rank and file – which is understandable for someone who came third earlier this year at the Giro.
The Portuguese climber is consistent and dogged, and what he may lack in Ayuso’s accelerations, he makes up in grizzled determination and inner-belief. Finishing runner-up to Matej Mohoric in the Tour de Pologne shows that the form is there for the 25-year-old.
Vlasov has not enjoyed the best of luck since his move to Bora-Hansgrohe from Astana, although fifth place in his Tour debut last year showed glimpses of his ability. The 27-year-old withdrew one day from Madrid in his last Vuelta appearance in 2021 back in the thick of those daily Covid tests.
After another DNF in the Giro in May, Vlasov came third at San Sebastian and pushed Roglic at Burgos, so he enters his third Vuelta with good reason to believe in a career-first podium finish in a Grand Tour.
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Joao Almeida celebrates
Image credit: Getty Images
The forgotten man: Hugh Carthy
Carthy’s career first – and only – Grand Tour podium came in the 2020 Vuelta off the back of his stunning (if inelegant) solo win on the Alto de l’Angliru, which returns to the route this year. Things have not been quite the same for Carthy since that breakthrough performance, with Carthy a DNF in 2021 and taking a lowly 25th in 2022.
Eighth and ninth-place finishes in the Giro in 2021 and 2022 show that Carthy still deserves to be included in the GC narrative – even if it now looks like the 29-year-old won’t develop into a rider who can challenge for a leader’s jersey.
The season has been mixed for Carthy, who finished behind compatriot Tao Geoghegan Hart in the Tour of the Alps, but then left the Giro with Covid and then was a DNS at the Tour de l’Ain in early August – his only race since.
The returning warrior: Egan Bernal
The Colombian makes only his second appearance in La Vuelta – his first since fading to sixth place in the final week of the 2021 race following his earlier victory in the Giro. A horrific training crash just months later means Bernal is not the same rider as he was back then – as evidenced by his 36th place in the Tour this July, well over two hours down on Vingegaard.
A victory in La Vuelta would see Bernal complete his Grand Tour grand slam – although there’s nothing to suggest that the 26-year-old is here for anything more than conditioning while supporting Ineos Grenadiers team-mates Thomas and Thymen Arensman.
After the hellish journey he’s been on, it’s fair to say that no one would begrudge Bernal a stage win at the very least.
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'The crash was a shock that changed my life,' says Bernal - Cycling Show
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The unknown quantities: Jay Vine, Eddie Dunbar, Lennard Kamna
Australian climber and TT champion Vine supported – somewhat begrudgingly – UAE team-mate Almeida at the Giro. Will he be prepared to do the same for both Almeida and Ayuso in Spain? Especially knowing that he won two stages last time round – before crashing out while in the polka dots.
Since winning the Tour Down Under, Vine’s form for UAE has not been a scratch on his form for Alpecin-Fenix – although he’s been playing an entirely different role. It would be great to see the 27-year-old off the leash in Spain, but with two strong leaders to work for, that may not happen.
Germany’s Kamna finds himself in a similar predicament at Bora-Hansgrohe, where he probably finds himself behind Vlasov and Sergio Higuita in the GC pecking order – perhaps even Emanuel Buchmann, too – despite cracking the top 10 in the Giro and being a proven stage hunter.
As for steady Eddie Dunbar, he came seventh in his first Giro for Israel-Premier Tech this May, following that up with seventh in the Tour de Pologne. Seventh in Spain sounds about right, although this will be the Irishman’s debut in the Vuelta and he may struggle with the intensity and heat.
The late additions: Romain Bardet, Mikel Landa
The mercurial Basque climber Landa may be off to bolster Evenepoel's mountain support at Quick-Step, but he's been called up to Bahrain-Victorious' roster for one last roll of the Vuelta dice off the back of his largely innocuous 19th place on the Tour.
Elsewhere, another rider from his generation – one with considerably more success in the winning stakes, however - has also been called up for his team, dsm-Firmenich. Frenchman Bardet crashed out of the Tour when in Stage 14 when in 12th place. He likes the Vuelta, where he took his last Grand Tour stage win back in 2021, so we shouldn't discount seeing Bardet in the breaks, but surely not in the hunt for red.
The outsiders: Thymen Arensman, Sergio Higuita, Sergio Buitrago
At a time when climbing domestiques from Ineos Grenadiers are racing for the exit, Dutchman Arensman has a chance to step up with a timely reminder of his class. The 23-year-old came sixth in the Giro in a support role for Geraint Thomas, and may now get his chance to ride for his own ambitions in Spain.
Arensman was a stage winner when he came sixth in last year’s Vuelta for Team DSM. It would be music to Ineos’ ears if he could match that and perhaps even push for a place on the podium.
Finally, let us wrap up with two Sergios… Higuita is the third, perhaps bluntest, part of Bora-Hansgrohe’s trident and will be eyeing a first Grand Tour top 10 at the fifth attempt. There's nothing we've seen that would suggest Higuita stands a better chance of a high finish than his consistent team-mate Emanuel Buchmann, however.
Bahrain-Victorious’ Buitrago, meanwhile, was a DNF last year and only came 53rd in 2020 in what was his Grand Tour debut. The Colombian has developed into a strong climber since, with two Giro stage wins to his name, so he could shine in Spain third time round – but not in anything but Bahrain red.
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Jonas Vingegaard
Image credit: Getty Images
Rider star ratings
***** Jonas Vingegaard
**** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
*** Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso
** Enric Mas, Geraint Thomas, Damiano Caruso, Aleksandr Vlasov, Thymen Arensman
* Hugh Carthy, Eddie Dunbar, Santiago Buitrago, Sergio Higuita, Lennard Kamna, Mikel Landa, Romain Bardet, Emanuel Buchmann
**** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
*** Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso
** Enric Mas, Geraint Thomas, Damiano Caruso, Aleksandr Vlasov, Thymen Arensman
* Hugh Carthy, Eddie Dunbar, Santiago Buitrago, Sergio Higuita, Lennard Kamna, Mikel Landa, Romain Bardet, Emanuel Buchmann
Predictions: 1. Roglic, 2. Ayuso, 3. Almeida, 4. Vingegaard, 5. Arensman, 6. Evenepoel, 7. Vlasov, 8. Mas, 9. Thomas, 10. Carapaz
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